Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Anthropic
$58K volume
76.0%
—
OpenAI
$45K volume
28.0%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2040 (13y 272d)Updated 10m ago
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Live prediction market odds for "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?". Anthropic is leading at 76.0%. The next most likely outcome is OpenAI at 28.0%. Total volume is $102K across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2040.
Leading Outcome
Anthropic
76.0%
Total Vol
$102K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?". Anthropic is leading at 76.0%. The next most likely outcome is OpenAI at 28.0%. Total volume is $102K across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2040.
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2040.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
51%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.019 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 9 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
51%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
2.00x
Source Diversity
8
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
51%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
20%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
56h
Sources
8
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
51%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
20%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
56h
Avg Sentiment
+0.050
Neutral %
80%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
OpenAI Targets $1 Trillion Valuation in What Would Be the Largest IPO Ever
Bing News·11h ago·neutral
5 Things to Know About OpenAI Before Its IPO
Bing News·21h ago·neutral
Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya to private companies planning to go public: SpaceX, OpenAI and - timesofindia.indiatimes.com
timesofindia.indiatimes.com·1d ago·neutral
Kalshi: 33x on Greenland Bet + 5 More High-Return Bets - StartupHub.ai
StartupHub.ai·2d ago·neutral
SpaceX IPO: Will It Be a Buy or a Bust? - The Globe and Mail
The Globe and Mail·2d ago·neutral
Related Markets Markets
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?
Lead 100.0% · June 30 (0x43c7e8)
Vol $69.8M
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Lead 0.1% · Yes
Vol $29.7M
Which company has the best AI model end of March?
Lead 99.9% · Anthropic
Vol $16.2M
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Lead 9.8% · Yes
Vol $14.7M
When will DHS be funded again?
Lead 97.0% · Before Jan 1, 2027
Vol $13.5M
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Lead 29.5% · Yes
Vol $12.4M