Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before Jan 1, 2030
$12K volume
59.0%
—
Before Jan 1, 2029
$13K volume
45.0%
—
Before Jan 1, 2028
$17K volume
34.0%
—
Before Jan 1, 2027
$116K volume
11.0%
—
Before Jul 1, 2026
$91K volume
3.0%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2030 (3y 270d)Updated 2m ago
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
Live prediction market odds for "Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?". Before Jan 1, 2030 is leading at 59.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 45.0%. Total volume is $249K across 5 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2030.
Leading Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2030
59.0%
Total Vol
$249K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?". Before Jan 1, 2030 is leading at 59.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Jan 1, 2029 at 45.0%. Total volume is $249K across 5 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2030.
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2030.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
8
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
777h
Sources
8
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
777h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Most dangerous countries for American tourists revealed in State Department map - New York Post
New York Post·11d ago·neutral
Navigating Global Risks: What It Means When the U.S. Government Issues a Level 4 Do Not Travel Alert - Travel And Tour World
Travel And Tour World·16d ago·neutral
US and UK Issue High-Level Pakistan Travel Advisories as Iran Conflict Escalates: What Travelers Need to Know - Travel And Tour World
Travel And Tour World·29d ago·neutral
Full List of Level 4 Travel Warnings As US Citizens Given Alerts - Newsweek
Newsweek·31d ago·neutral
Is it safe to travel? What the latest State Department advisories say - azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic
azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic·32d ago·neutral
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