Home🏛️Politics2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory?
Live marketEnds Apr 16, 2027 (1y 10d)Updated 7m ago

2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory?

Live prediction market odds for "2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory?". Mejia, 24% and above is leading at 31.0%. The next most likely outcome is Mejia, 16-20% at 20.0%. Total volume is $9K across 7 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Apr 16, 2027.

Leading Outcome
Mejia, 24% and above
31.0%
Total Vol
$9K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line

Current Odds

Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Mejia, 24% and above
$4K volume
31.0%
Mejia, 16-20%
$817 volume
20.0%
Mejia, 20-24%
$917 volume
20.0%
Mejia, 12-16%
$743 volume
14.0%
Mejia, 8-12%
$61 volume
8.0%
Mejia, 0-8%
$2K volume
7.0%
Hathaway, any margin
$432 volume
1.0%

How This Market Resolves

Live prediction market odds for "2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory?". Mejia, 24% and above is leading at 31.0%. The next most likely outcome is Mejia, 16-20% at 20.0%. Total volume is $9K across 7 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Apr 16, 2027.

Expected resolution date: Apr 16, 2027.

FAQ

What does spread mean here?

Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.

Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?

Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.

How fresh is this data?

Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.

News Sentiment Signal

neutral

Confidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.

50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 1 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
3
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
25h
Sources
3
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
25h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss

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