The Prediction Markets

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Starts in 747 daysKickoff
Traded
$794.1M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

JD Vance 21%

Next is JD Vance at 20.1%. The venues differ most on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Polymarket 13%, Kalshi 9.3%), a 3.7-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

13 of 86 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
JD Vance
21%
Kalshi 21%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
J.D. Vance
Price
21%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
JD Vance
20.1%
Polymarket 20.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 20.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $498 (4.98x)
Polymarket
Contract
JD Vance
Last price
20.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
20.1¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$498 (4.98x)
Volume
$17.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
12%
Polymarket 13%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 9.3%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$14.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Price
9.3%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
9.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$4.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Gavin Newsom
10.1%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 12%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
9.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$18.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Price
12%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jon Ossoff
9.1%
Polymarket 9.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 9.2%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
9.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$6.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Price
9.2%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$4.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Marco Rubio
9%
Polymarket 8.6%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 10%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
8.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$13.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Price
10%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$5.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Kamala Harris
4.2%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 4.1%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$9.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Price
4.1%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Josh Shapiro
2.9%
Polymarket 3%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$7.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Pete Buttigieg
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$8.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Donald Trump
2.6%
Kalshi 2.6%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald J. Trump
Price
2.6%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$4.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 50 more outcomes
Ron DeSantis
2.3%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2.4%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$12.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Price
2.4%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Mark Kelly
2.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2.5%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Kelly
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$796K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Kelly
Price
2.5%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Andy Beshear
2.2%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2.5%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$19.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear
Price
2.5%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$2.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

James Talarico
2.1%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$8.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Rahm Emanuel
1.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$345K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Price
2%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$8.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$10.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Tucker Carlson
1.3%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$14.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Raphael Warnock
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Thomas Massie
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$8.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Hunter Biden
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hunter Biden
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$861K
Trade this on Kalshi
JB Pritzker
1%
Kalshi 1%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
J.B. Pritzker
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Wes Moore
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$12.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$2.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Ro Khanna
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ro Khanna
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$10.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ro Khanna
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$577K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Ted Cruz
0.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$694K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

JB Pritzker
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
JB Pritzker
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$13.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump Jr.
0.7%
Kalshi 0.7%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Price
0.7%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivanka Trump
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ivanka Trump
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$8.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump Jr.
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$14.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Jamie Dimon
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jamie Dimon
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$11.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jamie Dimon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Stephen Smith
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Gretchen Whitmer
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$15.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$2.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Glenn Youngkin
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$28.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Doug Burgum
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$414K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Tulsi Gabbard
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$35.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Greg Abbott
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$35.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$424K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Elon Musk
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$27.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelle Obama
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Obama
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$19.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Nikki Haley
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikki Haley
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$30.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nikki Haley
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$934K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tim Walz
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Walz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$44.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Walz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$632K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Vivek Ramaswamy
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$38.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.9M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Abigail Spanberger
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abigail Spanberger
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$923K
Trade this on Polymarket
Adam Schiff
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Schiff
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$945K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Padilla
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Padilla
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$851K
Trade this on Polymarket
Candace Owens
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Candace Owens
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$535K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elissa Slotkin
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elissa Slotkin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$730K
Trade this on Polymarket
Eric Trump
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eric Trump
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$18.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Hakeem Jeffries
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hakeem Jeffries
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$279K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jalen Brunson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jalen Brunson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
John N. Kennedy
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
John N. Kennedy
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$395K
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh Stein
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Stein
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kim Kardashian
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Kardashian
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$40.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
LeBron James
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
LeBron James
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$54.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Johnson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Johnson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$391K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pete Hegseth
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$10.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Rick Scott
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rick Scott
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$512K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephen Smith
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen Smith
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$33.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Tim Scott
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Scott
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$393K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Cotton
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cotton
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Zohran Mamdani
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$22.4M
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi: the next person inaugurated for the 2029 term. Polymarket: the election winner. They differ if the winner is not inaugurated.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Office of the Presidency
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi: the next person inaugurated for the 2029 term. Polymarket: the election winner. They differ if the winner is not inaugurated.
  • Trading closes Nov 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • JD Vance
  • JD Vance
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list JD Vance for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Presidential Election Winner 2028". JD Vance leads at 21%. Next is JD Vance at 20.1%. $794.1M has traded across 60 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets