The Prediction Markets

2028 Democratic nominee for President?

Starts in 747 daysKickoff
Traded
$1.5B
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

55-64 46.5%

Next is Under 45 at 37.5%. The venues differ most on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Polymarket 16.8%, Kalshi 14%), a 2.7-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

20 of 111 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
55-64
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
55-64
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$463
Trade this on Polymarket
Under 45
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Under 45
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
45-54
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
45-54
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$989
Trade this on Polymarket
Jon Ossoff
15.8%
Polymarket 15.7%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 16%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 15.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $637 (6.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
15.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
15.7¢
Sell Yes
15.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$637 (6.37x)
Volume
$13.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Price
16%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$9.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
15.7%
Polymarket 16.8%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 14%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
16.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16.9¢
Sell Yes
16.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$592 (5.92x)
Volume
$15.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$9.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Gavin Newsom
14.7%
Polymarket 15%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 14%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
15.6¢
Sell Yes
14.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$641 (6.41x)
Volume
$28.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Price
14%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$11.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

85+
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 21.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $463 (4.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
85+
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
21.6¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$463 (4.63x)
Volume
$284
Trade this on Polymarket
Kamala Harris
6.9%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 7.6%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$14.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Price
7.6%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$8.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Josh Shapiro
5%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 4.6%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$10.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Price
4.6%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$5.9M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Pete Buttigieg
4.9%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 4.7%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$12.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Price
4.7%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$6.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Show 58 more outcomes
75-84
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
75-84
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Polymarket
Andy Beshear
4%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 5.6%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$13.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear
Price
5.6%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$6.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

65-74
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
65-74
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Polymarket
James Talarico
2.7%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 2.6%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$11.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico
Price
2.6%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$8.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Mark Kelly
2.6%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 3.6%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Kelly
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$17.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Kelly
Price
3.6%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$8.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Raphael Warnock
2.1%
Polymarket 2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 2.3%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$34.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Price
2.3%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$5.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Rahm Emanuel
2%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 3%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$14.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Price
3%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$7.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Wes Moore
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$18.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$5.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

J.B. Pritzker
1.7%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 2.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.B. Pritzker
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$15.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
J.B. Pritzker
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$6.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Ro Khanna
1.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ro Khanna
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$11.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ro Khanna
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$6.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Bernie Sanders
1.1%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$52.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$5.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Abdul El-Sayed
1%
Kalshi 1%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abdul El-Sayed
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
David Jolly
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Jolly
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$287
Trade this on Kalshi
Dwayne Johnson
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$12.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Mary Peltola
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Kalshi
Shawn Fain
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shawn Fain
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sherrod Brown
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sherrod Brown
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Chelsea Clinton
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chelsea Clinton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$50.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Cory Booker
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cory Booker
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$26.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cory Booker
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$4.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Michelle Obama
0.7%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1.8%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Obama
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$26.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle Obama
Price
1.8%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$7.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Gretchen Whitmer
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$12.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$4.9M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jon Stewart
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.3%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Stewart
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$24.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Stewart
Price
0.3%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$5.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Roy Cooper
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Roy Cooper
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$31.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$3.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Mark Cuban
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Cuban
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$23.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Cuban
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$6.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Elissa Slotkin
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elissa Slotkin
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elissa Slotkin
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$3.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Chris Murphy
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Murphy
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$17.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Murphy
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$4.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Mitch Landrieu
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mitch Landrieu
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mitch Landrieu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$124K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Chris Van Hollen
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Van Hollen
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Van Hollen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$354K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Hakeem Jeffries
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hakeem Jeffries
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hakeem Jeffries
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Ruben Gallego
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.4%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ruben Gallego
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$9.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ruben Gallego
Price
0.4%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$3.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jamie Dimon
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamie Dimon
Price
0.3%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Barack Obama
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Barack Obama
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$34.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Obama
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$6.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Stephen A. Smith
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.6%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$23.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Price
0.6%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$7.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Hunter Biden
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hunter Biden
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$44.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hunter Biden
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$8.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Amy Klobuchar
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amy Klobuchar
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Dwayne Johnson
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dwayne Johnson
Price
0.2%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Abigail Spanberger
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abigail Spanberger
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Jon Stewart
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Stein
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Jared Polis
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jared Polis
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$27.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Polis
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

LeBron James
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
LeBron James
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$44.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
LeBron James
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Phil Murphy
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.1%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phil Murphy
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$42.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Phil Murphy
Price
0.1%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Gina Raimondo
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gina Raimondo
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$35.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gina Raimondo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Hillary Clinton
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hillary Clinton
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$44.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hillary Clinton
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jasmine Crockett
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jasmine Crockett
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$36.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jasmine Crockett
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Zohran Mamdani
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.1%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$39.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Price
0.1%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9.9M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Andrew Yang
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Yang
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$48.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Yang
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$5.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Elizabeth Warren
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elizabeth Warren
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Walz
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.2%live, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Walz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$43.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Walz
Price
0.2%
As of
Live feed, 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

John Fetterman
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Fetterman
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$25.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Fetterman
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Graham Platner
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Graham Platner
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$8.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Graham Platner
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Beto O'Rourke
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beto O’Rourke
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$42.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Beto O'Rourke
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Liz Cheney
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liz Cheney
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$38.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Liz Cheney
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Adam Schiff
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Schiff
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$703K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Padilla
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Padilla
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
George Clooney
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
George Clooney
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$43.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kim Kardashian
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Kardashian
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$42.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
MrBeast
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
MrBeast
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$41.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Oprah Winfrey
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oprah Winfrey
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$54.4M
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 2 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Democratic Party
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 55-64
  • Under 45
  • 45-54

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 55-64 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "2028 Democratic nominee for President?". 55-64 leads at 46.5%. Next is Under 45 at 37.5%. $1.5B has traded across 68 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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