Current Status
Live
Leading Outcome
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 17.9%
V2 BetaOptimized UI
Trade NowLive marketEnds Nov 7, 2028 (2y 30d)Updated 1d ago
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Live prediction market odds for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028". Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is leading at 17.9%. The next most likely outcome is Gavin Newsom at 17.1%. Total volume is $1.5B across 62 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket, Kalshi. Expected resolution by Nov 7, 2028.
Leading Outcome
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
17.9%
Total Vol
$1.5B
Across 2 venues
Platforms
2
2 comparable
Best Spread
495 bps
Arb opportunity
Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$15.4M volume
17.9%
495 bps
stale quote
Gavin Newsom
$27.9M volume
17.1%
305 bps
stale quote
Jon Ossoff
$8.4M volume
17.0%
195 bps
stale quote
Kamala Harris
$8.3M volume
8.4%
110 bps
stale quote
Josh Shapiro
$10.1M volume
6.2%
150 bps
stale quote
Andy Beshear
$6.4M volume
5.7%
290 bps
stale quote
Pete Buttigieg
$12.2M volume
5.1%
5 bps
stale quote
Mark Kelly
$8.1M volume
4.1%
155 bps
stale quote
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028". Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is leading at 17.9%. The next most likely outcome is Gavin Newsom at 17.1%. Total volume is $1.5B across 62 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket, Kalshi. Expected resolution by Nov 7, 2028.
Expected resolution date: Nov 7, 2028.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Matching labels identify likely equivalent outcomes, but settlement rules may differ. A “Rules unverified” label means the comparison is not a verified arbitrage opportunity.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
unavailableConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
0%
Confidence
Low confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score — from 0 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
0
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Sources
0
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
0%
Label
unavailable
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
—
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
0%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: No coverage
Sentiment snapshot is not ready yet for this event. Background refresh will populate it shortly.
Outcome Leaderboards by Platform
Polymarket
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
17.9%
Gavin Newsom
17.1%
Jon Ossoff
15.0%
Kamala Harris
7.3%
Kalshi
Jon Ossoff
17.0%
Gavin Newsom
14.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
13.0%
Kamala Harris
8.4%
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