Home🏛️PoliticsBrazil Presidential election winner?
Live marketEnds Oct 25, 2027 (1y 202d)Updated 7m ago

Brazil Presidential election winner?

Live prediction market odds for "Brazil Presidential election winner?". Flávio Bolsonaro is leading at 43.9%. The next most likely outcome is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 41.1%. Total volume is $987K across 12 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Oct 25, 2027.

Leading Outcome
Flávio Bolsonaro
43.9%
Total Vol
$987K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line

Current Odds

Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Flávio Bolsonaro
$230K volume
43.9%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$144K volume
41.1%
Renan Santos
$101K volume
5.0%
Fernando Haddad
$90K volume
4.8%
Ronaldo Caiado
$25K volume
3.1%
Romeu Zema
$41K volume
2.0%
Tarcísio de Freitas
$177K volume
2.0%
Aldo Rebelo
$25K volume
1.8%

How This Market Resolves

Live prediction market odds for "Brazil Presidential election winner?". Flávio Bolsonaro is leading at 43.9%. The next most likely outcome is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 41.1%. Total volume is $987K across 12 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Oct 25, 2027.

Expected resolution date: Oct 25, 2027.

FAQ

What does spread mean here?

Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.

Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?

Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.

How fresh is this data?

Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.

News Sentiment Signal

neutral

Confidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.

50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 1 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
5
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
206h
Sources
5
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
206h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss

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