Home🏛️Politics Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?
Live marketEnds May 31, 2026 (1mo)Updated 12m ago

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Live prediction market odds for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?". Iván Cepeda Castro is leading at 87.0%. The next most likely outcome is Abelardo de la Espriella at 7.0%. Total volume is $2.0M across 16 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by May 31, 2026.

Leading Outcome
Iván Cepeda Castro
87.0%
Total Vol
$2.0M
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line

Current Odds

Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Iván Cepeda Castro
$75K volume
87.0%
Abelardo de la Espriella
$488K volume
7.0%
Paloma Valencia
$219K volume
4.0%
Sergio Fajardo
$72K volume
0.4%
David Luna Sánchez
$159K volume
0.4%
Juan Manuel Galán
$47K volume
0.3%
Vicky Dávila
$250K volume
0.3%
Mauricio Cárdenas
$32K volume
0.3%

How This Market Resolves

Live prediction market odds for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?". Iván Cepeda Castro is leading at 87.0%. The next most likely outcome is Abelardo de la Espriella at 7.0%. Total volume is $2.0M across 16 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by May 31, 2026.

Expected resolution date: May 31, 2026.

FAQ

What does spread mean here?

Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.

Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?

Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.

How fresh is this data?

Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.

News Sentiment Signal

bullish

Confidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.

67%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.237 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 6 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
67%
Label
bullish
Bull/Bear
3.00x
Source Diversity
6
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
67%
Label
bullish
Bullish %
30%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
615h
Sources
6
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
67%
Label
bullish
Bullish %
30%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
615h
Avg Sentiment
+0.075
Neutral %
70%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss

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