Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
7-9
$451 volume
39.7%
—
15
$384 volume
38.0%
—
4-6
$7K volume
32.6%
—
10-12
$482 volume
25.1%
—
13-15
Volume n/a
25.1%
—
3
$31K volume
12.2%
—
Live marketUpdated 14m ago
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
Live prediction market odds for "How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary? ". 7-9 is leading at 39.7%. The next most likely outcome is 15 at 38.0%. Total volume is $40K across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket.
Leading Outcome
7-9
39.7%
Total Vol
$40K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary? ". 7-9 is leading at 39.7%. The next most likely outcome is 15 at 38.0%. Total volume is $40K across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 1 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
9
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
581h
Sources
9
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
581h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary? - Polymarket
Polymarket·4d ago·neutral
Tracking U.S. House retirement announcements - AP News
AP News·9d ago·neutral
The House: 11 Rating Changes in Democratic-Held Seats; Non-Presidential Party Typically Doesn’t Lose Many of Their Own Seats in Midterms - Sabato's Crystal Ball - The Center for Politics at UVA
The Center for Politics at UVA·10d ago·neutral
Republicans boot Cade Cothren, 39 others from Tennessee primary ballot
Bing News·20d ago·neutral
Regional congressional incumbents to have quiet primary season
Bing News·21d ago·neutral
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