Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before Sep 1, 2026
$32K volume
33.0%
—
Before Jul 1, 2026
$2K volume
31.0%
—
Before Jun 1, 2026
$2K volume
25.0%
—
Before May 1, 2026
$75K volume
12.0%
—
Live marketEnds Sep 1, 2026 (4mo)Updated 7m ago
Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?
Live prediction market odds for "Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?". Before Sep 1, 2026 is leading at 33.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Jul 1, 2026 at 31.0%. Total volume is $167K across 4 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Sep 1, 2026.
Leading Outcome
Before Sep 1, 2026
33.0%
Total Vol
$167K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?". Before Sep 1, 2026 is leading at 33.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Jul 1, 2026 at 31.0%. Total volume is $167K across 4 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Sep 1, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Sep 1, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 1 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
5
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
645h
Sources
5
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
645h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
With AG Pam Bondi and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem Out, Trump Eyeing More Cabinet Changes: REPORT - Latin Times
Latin Times·2d ago·neutral
Trump weighs more Cabinet changes after Bondi ouster - politico.com
politico.com·3d ago·neutral
Billionaire Denies 'Loud and Belligerent' Confrontation with Trump Official Over $60 Billion AI Data Center
Bing News·6d ago·neutral
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick Pressed To Release Flight Logs Amid Epstein Probe
Bing News·17d ago·neutral
Epstein Files Reveal Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick Planned Private Yacht Dinner With 8 Children Aboard - ibtimes.co.uk
ibtimes.co.uk·20d ago·neutral
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