Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before Nov 3, 2026
$20K volume
21.0%
—
Before July 2026
$41K volume
10.0%
—
Live marketEnds Nov 3, 2026 (7mo)Updated 8m ago
Mike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?
Live prediction market odds for "Mike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?". Before Nov 3, 2026 is leading at 21.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before July 2026 at 10.0%. Total volume is $176K across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Nov 3, 2026.
Leading Outcome
Before Nov 3, 2026
21.0%
Total Vol
$176K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Mike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?". Before Nov 3, 2026 is leading at 21.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before July 2026 at 10.0%. Total volume is $176K across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Nov 3, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Nov 3, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
52%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score -0.032 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
52%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
5
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
52%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
30%
Median Age
120h
Sources
5
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
52%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
30%
Median Age
120h
Avg Sentiment
-0.100
Neutral %
70%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Jim Jordan’s dream might not be deferred much longer - Politico
Politico·10h ago·neutral
Mike Johnson faces potential ouster as Jim Jordan positions for takeover
Bing News·15h ago·neutral
Johnson Wavers on Ending the Shutdown, Reflecting His Weak Hold on Power - The New York Times
The New York Times·3d ago·bearish
Johnson Wavers on Ending the Shutdown, Reflecting His Weak Hold on Power
Bing News·4d ago·bearish
If the GOP Loses the House, What Happens to Mike Johnson?
Bing News·5d ago·neutral
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