Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Plaid Cymru
$8K volume
80.0%
—
Reform UK
$5K volume
14.5%
—
Welsh Labour
$7K volume
1.6%
—
Welsh Green Party
$3K volume
0.3%
—
Welsh Conservatives
$3K volume
0.2%
—
Welsh Liberal Democrats
$2K volume
0.1%
—
Live marketEnds May 7, 2026 (30d)Updated 6m ago
Wales Parliamentary Election Winner
Live prediction market odds for "Wales Parliamentary Election Winner". Plaid Cymru is leading at 80.0%. The next most likely outcome is Reform UK at 14.5%. Total volume is $28K across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by May 7, 2026.
Leading Outcome
Plaid Cymru
80.0%
Total Vol
$28K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Polymarket only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Wales Parliamentary Election Winner". Plaid Cymru is leading at 80.0%. The next most likely outcome is Reform UK at 14.5%. Total volume is $28K across 6 active outcomes. Data sources: Polymarket. Expected resolution by May 7, 2026.
Expected resolution date: May 7, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 1 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
2
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
242h
Sources
2
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
242h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Reform candidate says reviving coal can help Wales' energy demands
Bing News·4d ago·neutral
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf: The election issues and list of Senedd 2026 candidates in your constituency
Bing News·4d ago·neutral
Greens say they could be 'kingmakers' after Senedd election
Bing News·6d ago·neutral
Socialism or the Senedd? Thoughts from Internationalists in Wales
Bing News·7d ago·neutral
Left-wing parties would block Reform Welsh government - Drakeford - BBC
BBC·9d ago·neutral
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