Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before Aug 1, 2026
$106K volume
92.0%
—
Before Jul 1, 2026
$106K volume
87.0%
—
Before Jun 1, 2026
$118K volume
67.0%
—
Before May 15, 2026
$31K volume
51.0%
—
Before May 1, 2026
$175K volume
10.0%
—
Live marketEnds Aug 1, 2026 (3mo)Updated 4m ago
When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Live prediction market odds for "When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?". Before Aug 1, 2026 is leading at 92.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Jul 1, 2026 at 87.0%. Total volume is $823K across 5 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Aug 1, 2026.
Leading Outcome
Before Aug 1, 2026
92.0%
Total Vol
$823K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?". Before Aug 1, 2026 is leading at 92.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Jul 1, 2026 at 87.0%. Total volume is $823K across 5 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Aug 1, 2026.
Expected resolution date: Aug 1, 2026.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
6
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
37h
Sources
6
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
37h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Crypto market treads water ahead of hearing for new Fed chair nominee - bloomingbit
bloomingbit·18h ago·neutral
Warsh Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing Set for May 16; Senate Passage Uncertain - Seoul Economic Daily
Seoul Economic Daily·1d ago·neutral
Kevin Warsh needs to be confirmed as Fed Chair in order to avoid an economic shutdown - New York Post
New York Post·1d ago·neutral
Kevin Warsh needs to be confirmed as Fed Chair in order to avoid an economic shutdown
Bing News·1d ago·neutral
Warsh nomination moves ahead, putting Trump's competing Fed plans on a collision course - CNBC
CNBC·1d ago·neutral
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