Home🏛️PoliticsWhich party will win the next UK general election?
Live marketEnds Aug 31, 2029 (3y 147d)Updated 6m ago

Which party will win the next UK general election?

Live prediction market odds for "Which party will win the next UK general election?". Reform party is leading at 35.0%. The next most likely outcome is Labour party at 23.0%. Total volume is $164K across 8 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Aug 31, 2029.

Leading Outcome
Reform party
35.0%
Total Vol
$164K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line

Current Odds

Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Reform party
$42K volume
35.0%
Labour party
$10K volume
23.0%
Conservative party
$19K volume
13.0%
Green party
$16K volume
12.0%
Restore Britain party
$73K volume
8.0%
Your Party
$348 volume
1.0%
Liberal Democratic party
$3K volume
1.0%
Bruv party
$2K volume
1.0%

How This Market Resolves

Live prediction market odds for "Which party will win the next UK general election?". Reform party is leading at 35.0%. The next most likely outcome is Labour party at 23.0%. Total volume is $164K across 8 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Aug 31, 2029.

Expected resolution date: Aug 31, 2029.

FAQ

What does spread mean here?

Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.

Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?

Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.

How fresh is this data?

Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.

News Sentiment Signal

neutral

Confidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.

50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 1 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
1.00x
Source Diversity
6
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
325h
Sources
6
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
325h
Avg Sentiment
+0.025
Neutral %
90%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss

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