Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Kevin Warsh
$275K volume
97.3%
—
Judy Shelton
$2.5M volume
2.0%
—
Kevin Hassett
$55K volume
0.9%
—
Rick Rieder
$20K volume
0.9%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2029 (2y 271d)Updated 1m ago
Who will be confirmed as Fed chair?
Live prediction market odds for "Who will be confirmed as Fed chair?". Kevin Warsh is leading at 97.3%. The next most likely outcome is Judy Shelton at 2.0%. Total volume is $2.8M across 4 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2029.
Leading Outcome
Kevin Warsh
97.3%
Total Vol
$2.8M
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Who will be confirmed as Fed chair?". Kevin Warsh is leading at 97.3%. The next most likely outcome is Judy Shelton at 2.0%. Total volume is $2.8M across 4 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2029.
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2029.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
7
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
227h
Sources
7
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
227h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Warsh Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing Set for May 16; Senate Passage Uncertain - Seoul Economic Daily
Seoul Economic Daily·15h ago·neutral
Kevin Warsh needs to be confirmed as Fed Chair in order to avoid an economic shutdown - New York Post
New York Post·15h ago·neutral
Kevin Warsh needs to be confirmed as Fed Chair in order to avoid an economic shutdown
Bing News·15h ago·neutral
Warsh nomination moves ahead, putting Trump's competing Fed plans on a collision course - CNBC
CNBC·1d ago·neutral
Analysis: What might trip up Kevin Warsh and his agenda as Fed chair - CNBC
CNBC·9d ago·neutral
Related Politics Markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Lead 24.2% · Gavin Newsom
Vol $982.9M
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Lead 49.0% · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (0x0b17bd)
Vol $520.7M
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Lead 17.6% · JD Vance
Vol $491.6M
2028 Democratic nominee for President?
Lead 27.3% · Gavin Newsom
Vol $80.7M
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner
Lead 69.0% · TISZA
Vol $57.1M
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Lead 65.5% · Péter Magyar
Vol $47.2M