Home🏛️PoliticsWho will be the next Supreme Court justice?
Live marketEnds Jan 21, 2029 (2y 288d)Updated 9m ago

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?". Andrew Oldham is leading at 18.0%. The next most likely outcome is Amul Thapar at 13.0%. Total volume is $265K across 34 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 21, 2029.

Leading Outcome
Andrew Oldham
18.0%
Total Vol
$265K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line

Current Odds

Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Andrew Oldham
$18K volume
18.0%
Amul Thapar
$38K volume
13.0%
Aileen Cannon
$28K volume
13.0%
Ted Cruz
$14K volume
7.0%
James Ho
$15K volume
7.0%
Emil Bove
$5K volume
5.0%
Lawrence VanDyke
$7K volume
5.0%
Neomi Rao
$7K volume
4.0%

How This Market Resolves

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?". Andrew Oldham is leading at 18.0%. The next most likely outcome is Amul Thapar at 13.0%. Total volume is $265K across 34 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 21, 2029.

Expected resolution date: Jan 21, 2029.

FAQ

What does spread mean here?

Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.

Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?

Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.

How fresh is this data?

Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.

News Sentiment Signal

neutral

Confidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.

55%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.075 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
55%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
3.00x
Source Diversity
9
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
55%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
30%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
13h
Sources
9
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
55%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
30%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
13h
Avg Sentiment
+0.075
Neutral %
70%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: google_news_rss

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