Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Australian Labor Party
$10K volume
61.0%
—
Liberal-National Coalition
$6K volume
44.0%
—
Australian Greens
$19 volume
7.0%
—
One Nation
$53 volume
1.0%
—
Live marketEnds Sep 30, 2029 (3y 177d)Updated 3m ago
Who will win the next Australian House election?
Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the next Australian House election?". Australian Labor Party is leading at 61.0%. The next most likely outcome is Liberal-National Coalition at 44.0%. Total volume is $16K across 4 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Sep 30, 2029.
Leading Outcome
Australian Labor Party
61.0%
Total Vol
$16K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the next Australian House election?". Australian Labor Party is leading at 61.0%. The next most likely outcome is Liberal-National Coalition at 44.0%. Total volume is $16K across 4 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Sep 30, 2029.
Expected resolution date: Sep 30, 2029.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.006 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 1 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
2.00x
Source Diversity
7
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
20%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
384h
Sources
7
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
20%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
384h
Avg Sentiment
+0.050
Neutral %
80%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation likely to win second South Australian lower house seat - The Guardian
The Guardian·10d ago·neutral
SA2026 – Some Early Observations on the Result - Antony Green's Election Blog
Antony Green's Election Blog·11d ago·neutral
Why isn't One Nation winning many seats in the SA election despite its high vote? - abc.net.au
abc.net.au·11d ago·neutral
News just keeps getting better for One Nation - news.com.au
news.com.au·13d ago·neutral
One Nation wins at least one SA seat as Liberals consider ‘sobering lessons’ from election defeat - The Guardian
The Guardian·15d ago·bullish
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