Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
William Lai
$4K volume
65.0%
—
Hou Yu-ih
$898 volume
8.0%
—
Terry Gou
$697 volume
6.0%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 30, 2029 (2y 300d)Updated 6m ago
Who will win the next Taiwanese presidential election?
Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the next Taiwanese presidential election?". William Lai is leading at 65.0%. The next most likely outcome is Hou Yu-ih at 8.0%. Total volume is $6K across 3 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 30, 2029.
Leading Outcome
William Lai
65.0%
Total Vol
$6K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Who will win the next Taiwanese presidential election?". William Lai is leading at 65.0%. The next most likely outcome is Hou Yu-ih at 8.0%. Total volume is $6K across 3 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 30, 2029.
Expected resolution date: Jan 30, 2029.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
9
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
6086h
Sources
9
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
6086h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Explainer: Taiwan's political deadlock and the potential for new elections - Reuters
Reuters·108d ago·neutral
Cheng Li-wun’s Election Raises Questions for the KMT - thediplomat.com
thediplomat.com·156d ago·neutral
The reunification roadmap: How Beijing plans to win Taiwan without war - thinkchina.sg
thinkchina.sg·157d ago·neutral
‘Loyal Friend of Taiwan’ Sanae Takaichi Set to Become Next Japanese Prime Minister - dominotheory.com
dominotheory.com·182d ago·neutral
Taiwanese voters reject a bid to remove lawmakers from a China-friendly party - NPR
NPR·253d ago·neutral
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