Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before Jan 1, 2027
$23K volume
20.0%
—
Before Jul 1, 2026
$32K volume
5.0%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2027 (9mo)Updated 6m ago
Will Iran hold a presidential election?
Live prediction market odds for "Will Iran hold a presidential election?". Before Jan 1, 2027 is leading at 20.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Jul 1, 2026 at 5.0%. Total volume is $55K across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.
Leading Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
20.0%
Total Vol
$55K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Will Iran hold a presidential election?". Before Jan 1, 2027 is leading at 20.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Jul 1, 2026 at 5.0%. Total volume is $55K across 2 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
51%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score +0.019 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
51%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
1.00x
Source Diversity
6
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
51%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
279h
Sources
6
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
51%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
279h
Avg Sentiment
+0.025
Neutral %
90%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
Will Operation Epic Fury Affect the Midterm Elections?
Bing News·2d ago·neutral
Trump offers murky path forward for Republicans as Iran war clouds midterm elections
Bing News·3d ago·neutral
Iran’s president appeals to Americans − but does his office still hold any real power? - The Conversation
The Conversation·3d ago·neutral
Iran’s president appeals to Americans − but does his office still hold any real power?
Bing News·3d ago·neutral
Rubio’s and Vance’s differing postures on Iran war highlight their challenges ahead of 2028 election
Bing News·4d ago·bullish
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