Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before Jan 1, 2027
$17K volume
53.0%
—
Before Sep 1, 2026
$22K volume
27.0%
—
Before Jul 1, 2026
$18K volume
12.0%
—
Live marketEnds Jan 1, 2027 (8mo)Updated 1m ago
Will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?
Live prediction market odds for "Will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?". Before Jan 1, 2027 is leading at 53.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Sep 1, 2026 at 27.0%. Total volume is $59K across 3 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.
Leading Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
53.0%
Total Vol
$59K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?". Before Jan 1, 2027 is leading at 53.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before Sep 1, 2026 at 27.0%. Total volume is $59K across 3 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jan 1, 2027.
Expected resolution date: Jan 1, 2027.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
9
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
111h
Sources
9
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
111h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss
Latest News
April 6: Alito Hospital Visit Rekindles Supreme Court Vacancy Risk - Meyka
Meyka·1d ago·neutral
Justice Alito fell ill at a March event and was treated for dehydration, Supreme Court says
Bing News·2d ago·neutral
Justice Alito ‘felt ill’ at March event, was examined by doctor, court says - The Washington Post
The Washington Post·4d ago·neutral
Justice Alito treated for dehydration after March event illness - MSN
MSN·4d ago·neutral
Alito Treated for Dehydration After Philadelphia Event - Hoodline
Hoodline·4d ago·neutral
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