Current Odds
Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Yes
$19.9M volume
30.3%
—
Live marketEnds Jul 1, 2028 (2y 87d)Updated 13m ago
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
Live prediction market odds for "Will the Citrini scenario happen?". Yes is leading at 30.3%. Total volume is $19.9M across 1 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jul 1, 2028.
Leading Outcome
Yes
30.3%
Total Vol
$19.9M
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line
How This Market Resolves
Live prediction market odds for "Will the Citrini scenario happen?". Yes is leading at 30.3%. Total volume is $19.9M across 1 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Jul 1, 2028.
Expected resolution date: Jul 1, 2028.
FAQ
What does spread mean here?
Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.
Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?
Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.
How fresh is this data?
Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.
News Sentiment Signal
neutralConfidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.
50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 2 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
1.00x
Source Diversity
10
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
10%
Median Age
742h
Sources
10
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
10%
Bearish %
10%
Median Age
742h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
80%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: google_news_rss
Latest News
Odds of a “Citrini scenario” economic shock climb to 30% - Kalshi
Kalshi·5d ago·neutral
AI disruption: How CIOs should prepare for a new economy - TechTarget
TechTarget·16d ago·neutral
A Citrini research blows the AI-doomsday bugle, crashes the market, but is packed with glaring omissions & distractions - sify.com
sify.com·20d ago·bearish
Three Ways the Iran War Could End - Bloomberg.com
Bloomberg.com·28d ago·neutral
OpenAI investor Vinod Khosla believes AI will be able to do 80% of all jobs by 2030. Here’s how life could be affordable after mass unemployment - Fortune
Fortune·30d ago·neutral
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