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Live marketEnds Nov 7, 2028 (2y 216d)Updated 1m ago

Will Trump run for a third term?

Live prediction market odds for "Will Trump run for a third term?". Before Election Day is leading at 23.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before 2028 at 12.0%. Total volume is $83K across 3 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Nov 7, 2028.

Leading Outcome
Before Election Day
23.0%
Total Vol
$83K
Across all linked platforms
Platform
1
Kalshi only
Best Spread
0 bps
High-confidence matched line

Current Odds

Outcome
Market Prob
Spread
Before Election Day
$37K volume
23.0%
—
Before 2028
$29K volume
12.0%
—
Before 2027
$17K volume
7.0%
—

How This Market Resolves

Live prediction market odds for "Will Trump run for a third term?". Before Election Day is leading at 23.0%. The next most likely outcome is Before 2028 at 12.0%. Total volume is $83K across 3 active outcomes. Data sources: Kalshi. Expected resolution by Nov 7, 2028.

Expected resolution date: Nov 7, 2028.

FAQ

What does spread mean here?

Spread is the cross-platform pricing gap for the same outcome. Larger gaps can signal opportunity, but verify freshness and match quality first.

Are outcomes exactly the same across venues?

Outcomes are canonicalized and confidence-scored. Manual labels are surfaced when venue naming differs materially.

How fresh is this data?

Latest market updates on this page refresh continuously from platform snapshots and event pollers.

News Sentiment Signal

neutral

Confidence speedometer for event-level media sentiment. Higher confidence means better source depth and fresher coverage.

50%
Confidence
Moderate confidence signal
Aggregate sentiment score 0.000 from 10 analyzed headlines.
Freshness: unknown · Filtered: 0 prediction-titled articles
Metric Pack A · Lean
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bull/Bear
0.00x
Source Diversity
9
Metric Pack B · Balanced
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
394h
Sources
9
Metric Pack C · Power
Confidence
50%
Label
neutral
Bullish %
0%
Bearish %
0%
Median Age
394h
Avg Sentiment
0.000
Neutral %
100%
Duplicate %
0%
Coverage trend: Low
Providers: bing_news_rss, google_news_rss

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