A neutral place to compare prediction-market prices

Prediction markets are becoming a common way to read the odds of elections, economic decisions and world events. The same question is often listed on several venues, worded differently and settled by different rules. TPM aims to be the trust layer for those prices: one venue-neutral view that matches equivalent markets, checks that they settle the same way, and is clear about how current each quote is.

• Collect live prices from Kalshi and Polymarket and match markets that ask the same question.
• Show where the venues disagree, using prices you could actually trade at rather than stale last trades.
• Label every price with its freshness, and hold back numbers we cannot vouch for.
• Offer the same data to developers through a documented API.

The methodology page explains how matching, settlement checks, price gaps and freshness work.

TPM Inc. is an independent company. We have no affiliate, referral or revenue-sharing deals with Kalshi, Polymarket or any other venue, and no venue pays to be listed or ranked. Venues are shown in the same way, and our matching and gap rules do not favor either one. Links to a venue go to its own market page; they carry a standard source tag so the venue can see the visit came from TPM, but no venue pays us for that traffic.

We do not give investment advice or take editorial positions on outcomes.

For partnerships, data licensing, press or anything else, email [email protected]. Journalists can find citation guidance on the press page.