Iowa Senate
Toss-up
Kalshi
- Ashley Hinson59%
- Josh Turek43%
Polymarket
- Ashley Hinson57%
- Josh Turek43%
Venue gap 2.0 ptsCompare odds →
Live 2026 midterms · November 3
Polls open in11days15hrs17min30sec2026 Midterm Election Odds & Predictions
Democrats are favoured to win both the House and the Senate.
Live prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, side by side, for every Senate and governor race, all 435 House districts with a market, and control of Congress. Where the two markets disagree, you'll see it here first.
Control of Congress
Who wins the Senate, the House and the governorships
Senate
Which party wins the Senate?
Democrats 68%
- Kalshi
- 67.0%
- Polymarket
- 68.5%
last 30 days: ▲ 2.5 pts
House
Which party wins the House?
Democrats 92%
- Kalshi
- 91.3%
- Polymarket
- 92.5%
last 30 days: ▼ 0.5 pts
Governors
Which party holds more governorships?
Democrats 73%
- Kalshi
- 73.0%
- Polymarket
- 73.5%
Balance of power
Who ends up holding each chamber?
| Outcome | | |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats win both | 69% | 69% |
| D House, R Senate | 24% | 24% |
| R House, D Senate | 1% | 1% |
| Republicans win both | 9% | 8% |
Race map
Senate and governor races by state
Each state is coloured by how strongly the two markets favour one party. Tap a state to see both venues' candidates and prices.
Faded ends are seats not up this year. Each race counts for the party the two venues favour on average.
WI
VT
WA
ND
NY
NV
IN
PA
CT
CA
UT
MO
MD
AZ
HI
- Safe D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Safe R
- Projected flip
Ratings use the two venues' average price for the favourite: Safe 90%+, Likely 75–90%, Lean 60–75%, Toss-up under 60%.
Battlegrounds
The closest Senate and governor races
Ranked by how close the favourite is to a coin flip, averaged across both venues.
Iowa Senate
Toss-upKalshi
- Ashley Hinson59%
- Josh Turek43%
Polymarket
- Ashley Hinson57%
- Josh Turek43%
Venue gap 2.0 ptsCompare odds →
Georgia Governor
FlipLean DKalshi
- Keisha Lance Bottoms60%
- Rick Jackson40%
Polymarket
- Keisha Lance Bottoms63%
- Rick Jackson38%
Venue gap 2.5 ptsCompare odds →
Kansas Senate
Lean RKalshi
- Roger Marshall62%
- Adam Hamilton39%
Polymarket
- Roger Marshall63%
- Adam Hamilton38%
Venue gap 0.5 ptsCompare odds →
Texas Governor
Lean RKalshi
- Greg Abbott65%
- Gina Hinojosa36%
Polymarket
- Greg Abbott65%
- Gina Hinojosa36%
Venue gap 0.4 ptsCompare odds →
Maine Senate
FlipLean DKalshi
- Troy Jackson66%
- Susan Collins35%
Polymarket
- Troy Jackson67%
- Susan Collins33%
Venue gap 0.5 ptsCompare odds →
Nevada Governor
FlipLean DKalshi
- Aaron Ford66%
- Joe Lombardo34%
Polymarket
- Aaron Ford67%
- Joe Lombardo34%
Venue gap 0.5 ptsCompare odds →
Closest House districts
MT-01 House
Toss-upKalshi
- Aaron Flint56%
Polymarket
- Aaron Flint55%
Venue gap 1.0 ptsCompare odds →
KY-06 House
Toss-upKalshi
- Ralph Alvarado58%
Polymarket
- Ralph Alvarado54%
Venue gap 4.0 ptsCompare odds →
WI-01 House
Toss-upKalshi
- Bryan Steil57%
Polymarket
- Bryan Steil56%
Venue gap 1.0 ptsCompare odds →
ME-02 House
Toss-upKalshi
- Paul LePage59%
Polymarket
- Paul LePage56%
Venue gap 3.0 ptsCompare odds →
VA-01 House
Lean DKalshi
- Shannon Taylor60%
Polymarket
- Shannon Taylor60%
Venue gap 0.0 ptsCompare odds →
PA-01 House
Lean RKalshi
- Brian Fitzpatrick62%
Polymarket
- Brian Fitzpatrick60%
Venue gap 2.5 ptsCompare odds →
Venue gaps
Where 
Kalshi and 
Polymarket disagree most
Races where both venues back the same candidate but price them differently. The gap is how much cheaper the favourite is on one venue.
- KY-06 HouseRalph Alvarado cheaper on Polymarket58.0%54.0%4.0 pts
- CO-04 HouseLauren Boebert cheaper on Polymarket75.0%71.5%3.5 pts
- IL-04 HousePatty Garcia cheaper on Kalshi94.5%97.7%3.2 pts
- PA-14 HouseGuy Reschenthaler cheaper on Kalshi93.6%96.9%3.2 pts
- WA-06 HouseEmily Randall cheaper on Kalshi96.2%99.3%3.1 pts
- AZ-02 HouseEli Crane cheaper on Polymarket64.0%61.0%3.0 pts
- FL-07 HouseRyan Elijah cheaper on Polymarket73.0%70.0%3.0 pts
- KS-02 HouseDerek Schmidt cheaper on Polymarket82.0%79.0%3.0 pts
Every race
All 2026 midterm races
Search, filter and sort every Senate, governor and House race with a market on either venue.
| Race | Rating | Kalshi favourite | Polymarket favourite | Odds | Gap | 24h vol | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Toss-up | Ashley Hinson59% | Ashley Hinson57% | 58% | 2.0 pts | $84K | Odds → |
| Kansas | Lean R | Roger Marshall62% | Roger Marshall63% | 62% | 0.5 pts | $341K | Odds → |
| MaineFlip | Lean D | Troy Jackson66% | Troy Jackson67% | 66% | 0.5 pts | $250K | Odds → |
| TexasFlip | Lean D | James Talarico67% | James Talarico68% | 68% | 0.5 pts | $2.9M | Odds → |
| OhioFlip | Lean D | Sherrod Brown69% | Sherrod Brown71% | 70% | 1.5 pts | $325K | Odds → |
| Michigan | Lean D | Abdul El-Sayed70% | Abdul El-Sayed71% | 70% | 0.5 pts | $385K | Odds → |
| Nebraska | Lean R | Pete Ricketts74% | Pete Ricketts73% | 73% | 1.5 pts | $488K | Odds → |
| AlaskaFlip | Lean D | Mary Peltola75% | Mary Peltola75% | 75% | 0.5 pts | $26K | Odds → |
| South Carolina | Likely R | Darline Graham82% | Darline Graham Nordone82% | 82% | 0.5 pts | $412K | Odds → |
| Minnesota | Likely D | Peggy Flanagan88% | Peggy Flanagan89% | 89% | 1.0 pts | $351K | Odds → |
| Mississippi | Likely R | Cindy Hyde-Smith90% | Cindy Hyde-Smith89% | 89% | 1.7 pts | $107K | Odds → |
| New Hampshire | Likely D | Chris Pappas89% | Chris Pappas91% | 90% | 1.5 pts | $34K | Odds → |
| Florida | Safe R | Ashley Moody91% | Ashley Moody91% | 91% | 0.1 pts | $95K | Odds → |
| Montana | Safe R | Kurt Alme92% | Kurt Alme93% | 92% | 0.5 pts | $23K | Odds → |
| Louisiana | Safe R | Julia Letlow94% | Julia Letlow93% | 93% | 1.3 pts | $2K | Odds → |
| South Dakota | Safe R | Mike Rounds94% | Mike Rounds95% | 95% | 0.7 pts | $27K | Odds → |
| Arkansas | Safe R | Tom Cotton96% | Tom Cotton95% | 95% | 1.0 pts | $71K | Odds → |
| Georgia | Safe D | Jon Ossoff96% | Jon Ossoff96% | 96% | 0.7 pts | $83K | Odds → |
| Idaho | Safe R | Jim Risch95% | Jim Risch96% | 96% | 1.2 pts | $591K | Odds → |
| Tennessee | Safe R | Bill Hagerty96% | Bill Hagerty96% | 96% | 0.0 pts | $20K | Odds → |
| New Mexico | Safe D | Ben Ray Luján96% | Ben Ray Luján97% | 96% | 0.3 pts | $2K | Odds → |
| North CarolinaFlip | Safe D | Roy Cooper96% | Roy Cooper97% | 96% | 0.5 pts | $85K | Odds → |
| New Jersey | Safe D | Cory Booker97% | Cory Booker97% | 97% | 0.3 pts | $12K | Odds → |
| Kentucky | Safe R | Andy Barr97% | Andy Barr97% | 97% | 0.6 pts | $946 | Odds → |
| Oklahoma | Safe R | Kevin Hern98% | Kevin Hern97% | 98% | 0.2 pts | $45 | Odds → |
| Virginia | Safe D | Mark Warner98% | Mark Warner98% | 98% | 0.0 pts | $83 | Odds → |
| West Virginia | Safe R | Shelley Moore Capito98% | Shelley Moore Capito98% | 98% | 0.2 pts | $136 | Odds → |
| Delaware | Safe D | Chris Coons99% | Democrat98% | 98% | — | $352 | Odds → |
| Massachusetts | Safe D | Ed Markey98% | Ed Markey98% | 98% | 0.1 pts | $3K | Odds → |
| Oregon | Safe D | Jeff Merkley99% | Jeff Merkley98% | 99% | 0.6 pts | $59 | Odds → |
| Rhode Island | Safe D | Jack Reed99% | Jack Reed98% | 99% | 0.7 pts | $2 | Odds → |
| Illinois | Safe D | Juliana Stratton99% | Juliana Stratton98% | 99% | 0.6 pts | $1K | Odds → |
| Wyoming | Safe R | Harriet Hageman99% | Harriet Hageman99% | 99% | 0.2 pts | $1K | Odds → |
| Alabama | Safe R | Barry Moore99% | Barry Moore99% | 99% | 0.2 pts | $247 | Odds → |
| Colorado | Safe D | John Hickenlooper99% | John Hickenlooper99% | 99% | 0.3 pts | $698 | Odds → |
| Race | Rating | Kalshi favourite | Polymarket favourite | Odds | Gap | 24h vol | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GeorgiaFlip | Lean D | Keisha Lance Bottoms60% | Keisha Lance Bottoms63% | 61% | 2.5 pts | $213K | Odds → |
| Texas | Lean R | Greg Abbott65% | Greg Abbott65% | 65% | 0.4 pts | $653K | Odds → |
| NevadaFlip | Lean D | Aaron Ford66% | Aaron Ford67% | 66% | 0.5 pts | $54K | Odds → |
| Vermont | Lean R | Phil Scott74% | Phil Scott75% | 74% | 0.5 pts | $44K | Odds → |
| KansasFlip | Lean R | Ty Masterson76% | Ty Masterson74% | 75% | 2.5 pts | $11K | Odds → |
| Florida | Likely R | Byron Donalds80% | Byron Donalds80% | 80% | 0.0 pts | $244K | Odds → |
| Wisconsin | Likely D | David Crowley81% | David Crowley81% | 81% | 0.5 pts | $37K | Odds → |
| OhioFlip | Likely D | Amy Acton82% | Amy Acton81% | 81% | 1.5 pts | $470K | Odds → |
| Oregon | Likely D | Tina Kotek82% | Tina Kotek84% | 83% | 2.0 pts | $14K | Odds → |
| IowaFlip | Likely D | Rob Sand86% | Rob Sand89% | 87% | 2.5 pts | $46K | Odds → |
| Nebraska | Likely R | Jim Pillen89% | Jim Pillen89% | 89% | 0.5 pts | $245 | Odds → |
| AlaskaFlip | Likely D | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins90% | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins88% | 89% | 2.2 pts | $55K | Odds → |
| Oklahoma | Safe R | Mike Mazzei90% | Mike Mazzei91% | 91% | 0.8 pts | $7K | Odds → |
| Arizona | Safe D | Katie Hobbs92% | Katie Hobbs94% | 93% | 1.5 pts | $51K | Odds → |
| South Carolina | Safe R | Alan Wilson93% | Alan Wilson93% | 93% | 0.9 pts | $261 | Odds → |
| Michigan | Safe D | Jocelyn Benson93% | Jocelyn Benson94% | 93% | 0.6 pts | $19K | Odds → |
| Tennessee | Safe R | Marsha Blackburn94% | Marsha Blackburn94% | 94% | 0.6 pts | $28K | Odds → |
| New Hampshire | Safe R | Kelly Ayotte95% | Kelly Ayotte94% | 94% | 0.8 pts | $164 | Odds → |
| New Mexico | Safe D | Deb Haaland94% | Deb Haaland95% | 95% | 1.2 pts | $26K | Odds → |
| Alabama | Safe R | Tommy Tuberville94% | Tommy Tuberville95% | 95% | 1.1 pts | $8K | Odds → |
| Minnesota | Safe D | Amy Klobuchar95% | Amy Klobuchar95% | 95% | 0.2 pts | $26K | Odds → |
| Maine | Safe D | Hannah Pingree95% | Hannah Pingree95% | 95% | 0.5 pts | $642 | Odds → |
| New York | Safe D | Kathy Hochul95% | Kathy Hochul96% | 95% | 1.0 pts | $141K | Odds → |
| Rhode Island | Safe D | Helena Foulkes95% | Helena Foulkes97% | 96% | 1.4 pts | $2K | Odds → |
| Colorado | Safe D | Phil Weiser96% | Phil Weiser97% | 96% | 0.5 pts | $47K | Odds → |
| Massachusetts | Safe D | Maura Healey96% | Maura Healey96% | 96% | 0.0 pts | $70K | Odds → |
| Connecticut | Safe D | Ned Lamont96% | Ned Lamont97% | 97% | 0.7 pts | $2K | Odds → |
| Arkansas | Safe R | Sarah Huckabee Sanders97% | Sarah Huckabee Sanders97% | 97% | 0.3 pts | $5K | Odds → |
| California | Safe D | Xavier Becerra97% | Xavier Becerra97% | 97% | 0.3 pts | $434K | Odds → |
| Illinois | Safe D | JB Pritzker97% | JB Pritzker97% | 97% | 0.3 pts | $4K | Odds → |
| South Dakota | Safe R | Larry Rhoden97% | Larry Rhoden97% | 97% | 0.5 pts | $144 | Odds → |
| Pennsylvania | Safe D | Josh Shapiro97% | Josh Shapiro98% | 97% | 0.5 pts | $13K | Odds → |
| Idaho | Safe R | Brad Little98% | Brad Little98% | 98% | 0.1 pts | $159 | Odds → |
| Maryland | Safe D | Wes Moore98% | Wes Moore98% | 98% | 0.1 pts | $4K | Odds → |
| Wyoming | Safe R | Eric Barlow98% | Eric Barlow98% | 98% | 0.4 pts | $131 | Odds → |
| Hawaii | Safe D | Josh Green98% | Josh Green99% | 99% | 0.3 pts | $149 | Odds → |
| Race | Rating | Kalshi favourite | Polymarket favourite | Odds | Gap | 24h vol | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-40 | Toss-up | Ken Calvert54% | Not listed | 54% | — | $593 | Odds → |
| MT-01 | Toss-up | Aaron Flint56% | Aaron Flint55% | 56% | 1.0 pts | $130K | Odds → |
| KY-06 | Toss-up | Ralph Alvarado58% | Ralph Alvarado54% | 56% | 4.0 pts | $12K | Odds → |
| WI-01 | Toss-up | Bryan Steil57% | Bryan Steil56% | 56% | 1.0 pts | $31K | Odds → |
| ME-02 | Toss-up | Paul LePage59% | Paul LePage56% | 57% | 3.0 pts | $21K | Odds → |
| VA-01 | Lean D | Shannon Taylor60% | Shannon Taylor60% | 60% | 0.0 pts | $47K | Odds → |
| PA-01 | Lean R | Brian Fitzpatrick62% | Brian Fitzpatrick60% | 61% | 2.5 pts | $23K | Odds → |
| VA-05 | Lean R | John McGuire61% | John McGuire62% | 61% | 0.5 pts | $132K | Odds → |
| NY-17 | Lean D | Cait Conley61% | Cait Conley63% | 62% | 1.5 pts | $13K | Odds → |
| FL-22 | Lean D | Pia Dandiya62% | Pia Dandiya63% | 62% | 0.5 pts | $13K | Odds → |
| NV-02 | Lean R | David Flippo63% | David Flippo62% | 62% | 1.5 pts | $5K | Odds → |
| AZ-02 | Lean R | Eli Crane64% | Eli Crane61% | 63% | 3.0 pts | $33K | Odds → |
| IA-02 | Lean D | Lindsay James63% | Lindsay James63% | 63% | 0.0 pts | $9K | Odds → |
| MI-04 | Lean D | Sean McCann64% | Sean McCann63% | 63% | 1.5 pts | $24K | Odds → |
| OH-15 | Lean R | Mike Carey64% | Mike Carey63% | 64% | 1.0 pts | $74K | Odds → |
| MO-02 | Lean R | Ann Wagner65% | Ann Wagner66% | 66% | 1.0 pts | $102K | Odds → |
| OH-10 | Lean R | Mike Turner66% | Mike Turner66% | 66% | 0.5 pts | $28K | Odds → |
| SC-01 | Lean R | Jenny Costa Honeycutt67% | Jenny Costa Honeycutt65% | 66% | 2.5 pts | $3K | Odds → |
| TX-35 | Lean D | Johnny C. Garcia67% | Johnny Garcia65% | 66% | 2.5 pts | $14K | Odds → |
| FL-27 | Lean R | Maria Elvira Salazar66% | María Elvira Salazar66% | 66% | 0.0 pts | $2K | Odds → |
| MN-01 | Lean R | Brad Finstad67% | Brad Finstad65% | 66% | 2.0 pts | $22K | Odds → |
| TX-23 | Lean R | Brandon Herrera69% | Brandon Herrera67% | 68% | 2.0 pts | $15K | Odds → |
| CO-05 | Lean R | Jeff Crank69% | Jeff Crank68% | 68% | 1.5 pts | $19K | Odds → |
| FL-14 | Lean D | Kathy Castor70% | Kathy Castor69% | 69% | 1.5 pts | $122K | Odds → |
| CO-03 | Lean R | Jeff Hurd71% | Jeff Hurd69% | 70% | 2.5 pts | $1K | Odds → |
| FL-09 | Lean R | Dan Green71% | Dan Green69% | 70% | 2.5 pts | $360 | Odds → |
| NY-21 | Lean R | Anthony Constantino71% | Anthony Constantino71% | 71% | 0.5 pts | $2K | Odds → |
| MI-10 | Lean D | Christina Hines71% | Christina Hines71% | 71% | 0.0 pts | $816 | Odds → |
| AL-02 | Lean R | Rhett Marques72% | Rhett Marques71% | 72% | 1.0 pts | $87K | Odds → |
| FL-07 | Lean R | Ryan Elijah73% | Ryan Elijah70% | 72% | 3.0 pts | $10K | Odds → |
| CO-04 | Lean R | Lauren Boebert75% | Lauren Boebert72% | 73% | 3.5 pts | $334 | Odds → |
| MI-07 | Lean D | William Lawrence73% | William Lawrence75% | 74% | 2.0 pts | $32K | Odds → |
| FL-13 | Likely R | Anna Paulina Luna76% | Anna Paulina Luna75% | 76% | 1.0 pts | $9K | Odds → |
| NJ-02 | Likely R | Jeff Van Drew76% | Jeff Van Drew77% | 76% | 0.5 pts | $32K | Odds → |
| OH-09 | Likely D | Marcy Kaptur76% | Marcy Kaptur77% | 77% | 1.0 pts | $6K | Odds → |
| NC-09 | Likely R | Richard Hudson78% | Richard Hudson77% | 78% | 1.0 pts | $47K | Odds → |
| NE-01 | Likely R | Mike Flood79% | Mike Flood76% | 78% | 3.0 pts | $4K | Odds → |
| WI-03 | Likely D | Rebecca Cooke78% | Rebecca Cooke78% | 78% | 0.5 pts | $3K | Odds → |
| MD-01 | Likely R | Andy Harris77% | Andy Harris79% | 78% | 2.0 pts | $7K | Odds → |
| AK-AL | Likely R | Not listed | Republican Party79% | 79% | — | $499 | Odds → |
| NC-03 | Likely R | Greg Murphy79% | Greg Murphy80% | 79% | 0.5 pts | $7K | Odds → |
| NY-02 | Likely R | Andrew Garbarino79% | Andrew Garbarino80% | 79% | 0.5 pts | $14K | Odds → |
| NC-07 | Likely R | David Rouzer81% | David Rouzer80% | 80% | 1.5 pts | $8K | Odds → |
| PA-08 | Likely D | Paige Cognetti81% | Paige Cognetti80% | 80% | 1.5 pts | $16K | Odds → |
| KS-02 | Likely R | Derek Schmidt82% | Derek Schmidt79% | 81% | 3.0 pts | $12K | Odds → |
| NC-01 | Likely D | Don Davis80% | Don Davis82% | 81% | 1.5 pts | $90K | Odds → |
| AR-02 | Likely R | French Hill82% | French Hill80% | 81% | 2.0 pts | $6K | Odds → |
| MN-08 | Likely R | Pete Stauber82% | Pete Stauber80% | 81% | 2.0 pts | $4K | Odds → |
| FL-16 | Likely R | Sydney Gruters82% | Sydney Gruters81% | 81% | 1.5 pts | $541 | Odds → |
| FL-26 | Likely R | Mario Díaz-Balart82% | Mario Díaz-Balart81% | 82% | 1.0 pts | $12K | Odds → |
| FL-04 | Likely R | Aaron Bean82% | Aaron Bean82% | 82% | 0.5 pts | $40K | Odds → |
| IA-03 | Likely D | Sarah Trone Garriott82% | Sarah Trone Garriott82% | 82% | 0.0 pts | $19K | Odds → |
| PA-10 | Likely D | Janelle Stelson83% | Janelle Stelson82% | 82% | 1.5 pts | $1K | Odds → |
| NC-13 | Likely R | Brad Knott83% | Brad Knott82% | 83% | 1.0 pts | $2K | Odds → |
| NC-11 | Likely D | Jamie Ager82% | Jamie Ager84% | 83% | 1.5 pts | $84K | Odds → |
| TX-34 | Likely D | Vicente Gonzalez84% | Vicente Gonzalez82% | 83% | 2.0 pts | $1K | Odds → |
| AZ-01 | Likely D | Amish Shah83% | Amish Shah84% | 84% | 1.0 pts | $7K | Odds → |
| TX-09 | Likely R | Alex Mealer84% | Alex Mealer84% | 84% | 0.5 pts | $436 | Odds → |
| WA-05 | Likely R | Michael Baumgartner85% | Michael Baumgartner83% | 84% | 2.5 pts | $30K | Odds → |
| SC-02 | Likely R | Joe Wilson84% | Joe Wilson84% | 84% | 0.0 pts | $5K | Odds → |
By state
2026 election odds by state
Senate, governor and House odds for each state on one page.
- AlabamaSenate · Governor · 7 House
- AlaskaSenate · Governor · 1 House
- ArizonaGovernor · 9 House
- ArkansasSenate · Governor · 4 House
- CaliforniaGovernor · 52 House
- ColoradoSenate · Governor · 8 House
- ConnecticutGovernor · 5 House
- DelawareSenate · 1 House
- FloridaSenate · Governor · 28 House
- GeorgiaSenate · Governor · 14 House
- HawaiiGovernor · 2 House
- IdahoSenate · Governor · 2 House
- IllinoisSenate · Governor · 17 House
- Indiana9 House
- IowaSenate · Governor · 4 House
- KansasSenate · Governor · 4 House
- KentuckySenate · 6 House
- LouisianaSenate · 6 House
- MaineSenate · Governor · 2 House
- MarylandGovernor · 8 House
- MassachusettsSenate · Governor · 9 House
- MichiganSenate · Governor · 13 House
- MinnesotaSenate · Governor · 8 House
- MississippiSenate · 4 House
- Missouri8 House
- MontanaSenate · 2 House
- NebraskaSenate · Governor · 3 House
- NevadaGovernor · 4 House
- New HampshireSenate · Governor · 2 House
- New JerseySenate · 12 House
- New MexicoSenate · Governor · 3 House
- New YorkGovernor · 26 House
- North CarolinaSenate · 14 House
- North Dakota1 House
- OhioSenate · Governor · 15 House
- OklahomaSenate · Governor · 5 House
- OregonSenate · Governor · 6 House
- PennsylvaniaGovernor · 17 House
- Rhode IslandSenate · Governor · 2 House
- South CarolinaSenate · Governor · 7 House
- South DakotaSenate · Governor · 1 House
- TennesseeSenate · Governor · 9 House
- TexasSenate · Governor · 38 House
- Utah4 House
- VermontGovernor · 1 House
- VirginiaSenate · 11 House
- Washington10 House
- West VirginiaSenate · 2 House
- WisconsinGovernor · 8 House
- WyomingSenate · Governor · 1 House
FAQ
2026 midterms: common questions
Who is favoured to win the Senate in 2026?
Prediction markets give Democrats about a 68% chance of controlling the Senate after the 2026 midterms (Kalshi 68% and Polymarket 69%). Adding up the favourite in each of the 35 races gives Democrats 52 seats and Republicans 48.
Who is favoured to win the House in 2026?
Democrats are favoured to win the House, at about 92% (Kalshi 91% and Polymarket 93%). A party needs 218 of the 435 seats for a majority.
What are the closest Senate races in 2026?
By market price the closest Senate races are Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Texas. The markets expect the seat to change party in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas.
Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?
Democrats are favoured, at about 73%. 36 governorships are on the ballot; counting each race's favourite gives Democrats 28 and Republicans 22 of the 50.
When is the 2026 midterm election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats (33 regular plus special elections in Florida and Ohio) and 36 governorships are on the ballot.
How do prediction market odds work?
Each contract pays $1 if its outcome happens. A price of 68¢ means traders collectively put the chance at about 68%. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange; Polymarket is a crypto-based market. Comparing both shows where they agree and where one is cheaper.
How are the Safe, Likely, Lean and Toss-up ratings set?
They come straight from market prices: the average of Kalshi and Polymarket for the favourite. Safe is 90% or more, Likely 75–90%, Lean 60–75% and Toss-up under 60%. A Flip tag means the favourite is from a different party than the current holder.
Prices are each venue's latest price, collected by TPM and refreshed every few minutes. Party chances come from each venue's candidate markets; the race rating uses the average of both venues. Seats not up in 2026 (34 Democratic-caucus and 31 Republican Senate seats; 6 Democratic and 8 Republican governors) are added to the projections. Prediction markets are not polls; see our methodology.