Election night · November 3, 2026
Midterms live: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Who controls the Senate and the House, and the key races, as priced right now on both prediction markets. Prices refresh automatically.
LiveUpdated just now · refreshes every 45 seconds
Control of Congress
Senate control
Gap0.5 pts
Polymarket
House control
Gap1.1 ptsPolymarket
Most governorships
Gap1.5 ptsPolymarket
Key Senate races
| State |  Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas0.5 pts | James Talarico67%19s ago | James Talarico (D)67.5%19s ago | 0.5 pts |
| Idaho1.7 pts | Jim Risch94.5%19s ago | Jim Risch (R)96.2%19s ago | 1.7 pts |
| Nebraska3.5 pts | Pete Ricketts74%19s ago | Pete Ricketts (R)70.5%19s ago | 3.5 pts |
| South Carolina0.5 pts | Darline Graham82%19s ago | Darline Graham Nordone (R)81.5%19s ago | 0.5 pts |
| Michigan1.5 pts | Abdul El-Sayed69%19s ago | Abdul El-Sayed (D)70.5%19s ago | 1.5 pts |
| Kansas0.5 pts | Roger Marshall62%19s ago | Roger Marshall (R)62.5%19s ago | 0.5 pts |
| Minnesota0.5 pts | Peggy Flanagan88%19s ago | Peggy Flanagan (D)88.5%4 min ago | 0.5 pts |
| Ohio0.5 pts | Sherrod Brown69%19s ago | Sherrod Brown (D)69.5%19s ago | 0.5 pts |
| Maine0.5 pts | Troy Jackson66%19s ago | Troy Jackson (D)66.5%19s ago | 0.5 pts |
| Florida0.5 pts | Ashley Moody90%19s ago | Ashley Moody (R)90.5%4 min ago | 0.5 pts |
Key House races
| District | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| TX-152.5 pts | Bobby Pulido88%19s ago | Bobby Pulido (D)85.5%2 min ago | 2.5 pts |
| MT-011.5 pts | Aaron Flint57%19s ago | Aaron Flint (R)55.5%4 min ago | 1.5 pts |
| VA-050.5 pts | John McGuire61%19s ago | John McGuire (R)61.5%19s ago | 0.5 pts |
| FL-141.5 pts | Kathy Castor70%19s ago | Kathy Castor (D)68.5%19s ago | 1.5 pts |
| MO-021.0 pts | Ann Wagner65%19s ago | Ann Wagner (R)66%19s ago | 1.0 pts |
| AL-021.0 pts | Rhett Marques72%19s ago | Rhett Marques (R)71%19s ago | 1.0 pts |
| NC-111.5 pts | Jamie Ager82%19s ago | Jamie Ager (D)83.5%4 min ago | 1.5 pts |
| MN-050.4 pts | Ilhan Omar95.5%19s ago | Ilhan Omar (D)95.9%5 min ago | 0.4 pts |
Key governor races
| State | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas0.5 pts | Greg Abbott65%19s ago | Greg Abbott (R)64.6%19s ago | 0.5 pts |
| Ohio0.5 pts | Amy Acton80%19s ago | Amy Acton (D)80.5%19s ago | 0.5 pts |
| California0.3 pts | Xavier Becerra96.9%19s ago | Xavier Becerra96.6%19s ago | 0.3 pts |
| Georgia3.0 pts | Keisha Lance Bottoms60%19s ago | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)63%4 min ago | 3.0 pts |
| Florida1.0 pts | Byron Donalds79%19s ago | Byron Donalds (R)80%4 min ago | 1.0 pts |
| New York0.8 pts | Kathy Hochul95%19s ago | Kathy Hochul (D)95.8%19s ago | 0.8 pts |
Each venue's favoured outcome and its current price; 64% means the market gives it about a 64% chance. The time under each price is how long ago that venue's price was last observed. Gap is the difference between the venues when they favour the same outcome; it is hidden when either price is over 2 hours old. Key races are the most traded in the last day. See every race →