Market comparison

#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 19?

2 venues · 41 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

28 outcomes · $577K reported volume

Observed 45s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $9K reported volume

Observed 45s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for #1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 19?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Above 3.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 3.7% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.1% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 4.1% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 4.4% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 4.6% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 4.7% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 4.8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 97.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 4.9% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 5.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 94.0% Above 5.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 5.4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	61.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 61.0% Above 5.4% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 6.1% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Above 6.1% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 14.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 14.7% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 16.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 16.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 16.6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 96.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 16.6% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 17.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	83.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 89.0% Above 17.7% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 18.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	60.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 62.0% Above 18.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 18.1% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	55.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 55.0% Above 18.1% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 18.4% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	40.0% Bid 40.0% · Ask 59.0% Above 18.4% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 18.7% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 48.0% Above 18.7% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 19.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 61.0% Above 19.0% Open Kalshi ↗ 18.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 37.0% Above 19.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 19.3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 24.0% Above 19.3% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 19.6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 22.0% Above 19.6% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 19.8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 18.0% Above 19.8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 19.9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 22.0% Above 19.9% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 20.1% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0% Above 20.1% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 20.8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 12.0% Above 20.8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 21.2% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 15.0% Above 21.2% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 21.8% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Above 21.8% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
AI lab F Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AI lab F · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
AI lab G Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AI lab G · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Anthropic Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7% Anthropic Open Polymarket ↗	—
DeepSeek Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	97.8% Bid 96.8% · Ask 98.8% DeepSeek Open Polymarket ↗	—
Google Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.0% Google Open Polymarket ↗	—
Meta Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.1% Meta Open Polymarket ↗	—
MiniMax Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% MiniMax Open Polymarket ↗	—
Nvidia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9% Nvidia Open Polymarket ↗	—
OpenAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.0% OpenAI Open Polymarket ↗	—
Qwen Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7% Qwen Open Polymarket ↗	—
Tencent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.2% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.2% Tencent Open Polymarket ↗	—
xAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% xAI Open Polymarket ↗	—
Xiaomi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Xiaomi Open Polymarket ↗	—
Z.ai Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.9% Z.ai Open Polymarket ↗	—

Above 3.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 3.7%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.1%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 4.1%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 4.4%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 4.6%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 4.7%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 4.8%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 97.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 4.9%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 5.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 94.0%

Above 5.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 5.4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

61.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 61.0%

Above 5.4%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 6.1%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Above 6.1%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 14.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 14.7%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 16.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 16.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 16.6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 96.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 16.6%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 17.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 89.0%

Above 17.7%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 18.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

60.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 62.0%

Above 18.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 18.1%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

55.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 55.0%

Above 18.1%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 18.4%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

40.0%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 59.0%

Above 18.4%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 18.7%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

25.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 48.0%

Above 18.7%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 19.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 61.0%

Above 19.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

18.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 37.0%

Above 19.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 19.3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 24.0%

Above 19.3%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 19.6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 22.0%

Above 19.6%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 19.8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 18.0%

Above 19.8%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 19.9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 22.0%

Above 19.9%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 20.1%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0%

Above 20.1%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 20.8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 12.0%

Above 20.8%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 21.2%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 15.0%

Above 21.2%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 21.8%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Above 21.8%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

AI lab F

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

AI lab F · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

AI lab G

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

AI lab G · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Anthropic

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7%

Anthropic

Open Polymarket ↗

DeepSeek

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

97.8%

Bid 96.8% · Ask 98.8%

DeepSeek

Open Polymarket ↗

Google

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.0%

Google

Open Polymarket ↗

MiniMax

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

MiniMax

Open Polymarket ↗

Nvidia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9%

Nvidia

Open Polymarket ↗

OpenAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.0%

OpenAI

Open Polymarket ↗

Qwen

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7%

Qwen

Open Polymarket ↗

Tencent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.2%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.2%

Tencent

Open Polymarket ↗

xAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

xAI

Open Polymarket ↗

Xiaomi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

Xiaomi

Open Polymarket ↗

Z.ai

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.9%

Z.ai

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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