Market comparison

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

4 outcomes · $50.1M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Feb 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $30.4M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Democrats sweep Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	69.0% Bid 69.0% · Ask 70.0% Democrats sweep Open Kalshi ↗	68.5% Bid 68.0% · Ask 69.0% Democrats Sweep Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Republicans sweep Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.7% Bid 8.6% · Ask 8.7% Republicans sweep Open Kalshi ↗	7.5% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% Republicans Sweep Open Polymarket ↗	1.2 pp
D Senate, R House Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.9% Bid 0.8% · Ask 0.9% D Senate, R House Open Polymarket ↗	—
D-House, R-Senate Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0% D-House, R-Senate Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
R Senate, D House Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	23.5% Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0% R Senate, D House Open Polymarket ↗	—
R-House, D-Senate Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.6% Bid 0.5% · Ask 0.6% R-House, D-Senate Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Democrats sweep

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

69.0%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 70.0%

Democrats sweep

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

68.5%

Bid 68.0% · Ask 69.0%

Democrats Sweep

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Republicans sweep

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

8.7%

Bid 8.6% · Ask 8.7%

Republicans sweep

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0%

Republicans Sweep

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.2 pp

D Senate, R House

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 0.9%

D Senate, R House

Open Polymarket ↗

D-House, R-Senate

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0%

D-House, R-Senate

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

R Senate, D House

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

23.5%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0%

R Senate, D House

Open Polymarket ↗

R-House, D-Senate

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.6%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 0.6%

R-House, D-Senate

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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