Market comparison
2026: Trump's bad year?
2 venues · 1 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗1 outcomes · $273K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗1 outcomes · $39K reported volume
Observed 4m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027
Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Yes Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.4 pp |
Yes
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.4 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.