Market comparison

#3 Artist on Spotify in 2026?

2 venues · 27 outcome rows · 6 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

22 outcomes · $46K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $30K reported volume

Observed 28s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on Spotify Wrapped for the year; Kalshi U.S. markets use the U.S. chart, global markets the global chart. Polymarket's deadline for the report may differ from Kalshi's.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for #3 Artist on Spotify in 2026?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Bad Bunny Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.1% Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.6% Bad Bunny Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Bad Bunny Open Kalshi ↗	1.9 pp
Bruno Mars Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Bruno Mars Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Bruno Mars Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
Drake Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	13.5% Bid 9.0% · Ask 18.0% Drake Open Polymarket ↗	12.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 16.0% Drake Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
Justin Bieber Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.8% Justin Bieber Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Justin Bieber Open Kalshi ↗	1.6 pp
Taylor Swift Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	81.5% Bid 76.0% · Ask 87.0% Taylor Swift Open Polymarket ↗	73.0% Bid 73.0% · Ask 84.0% Taylor Swift Open Kalshi ↗	8.5 pp
The Weeknd Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7% The Weeknd Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% The Weeknd Open Kalshi ↗	2.6 pp
Ariana Grande Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.9% Ariana Grande Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Beyoncé Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Beyoncé Open Kalshi ↗	—
Billie Eilish Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.8% Bid 0.6% · Ask 1.0% Billie Eilish Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BTS Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% BTS Open Kalshi ↗	—
Chappell Roan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% Chappell Roan Open Kalshi ↗	—
Ed Sheeran Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Ed Sheeran Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Eminem Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.7% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.2% Eminem Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Kendrick Lamar Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Kendrick Lamar Open Kalshi ↗	—
Michael Jackson Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Michael Jackson Open Kalshi ↗	—
Morgan Wallen Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Morgan Wallen Open Kalshi ↗	—
Placeholder 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Placeholder 1 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Placeholder 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Placeholder 2 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Placeholder 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Placeholder 3 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Placeholder 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Placeholder 4 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Placeholder 5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Placeholder 5 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Placeholder 6 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Placeholder 6 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Placeholder 7 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Placeholder 7 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Placeholder 8 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Placeholder 8 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Placeholder 9 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Placeholder 9 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Placeholder 10 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Placeholder 10 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Placeholder 11 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Placeholder 11 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Bad Bunny

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.6%

Bad Bunny

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Bad Bunny

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

Bruno Mars

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

Bruno Mars

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Bruno Mars

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Drake

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 18.0%

Drake

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 16.0%

Drake

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Justin Bieber

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.8%

Justin Bieber

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Justin Bieber

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.6 pp

Taylor Swift

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

81.5%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 87.0%

Taylor Swift

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

73.0%

Bid 73.0% · Ask 84.0%

Taylor Swift

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 8.5 pp

The Weeknd

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7%

The Weeknd

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

The Weeknd

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.6 pp

Ariana Grande

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.9%

Ariana Grande

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Beyoncé

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Beyoncé

Open Kalshi ↗

Billie Eilish

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.8%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 1.0%

Billie Eilish

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

BTS

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

BTS

Open Kalshi ↗

Chappell Roan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

Chappell Roan

Open Kalshi ↗

Ed Sheeran

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

Ed Sheeran

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Eminem

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.2%

Eminem

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Kendrick Lamar

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Kendrick Lamar

Open Kalshi ↗

Michael Jackson

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Michael Jackson

Open Kalshi ↗

Morgan Wallen

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Morgan Wallen

Open Kalshi ↗

Placeholder 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Placeholder 1 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Placeholder 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Placeholder 2 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Placeholder 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Placeholder 3 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Placeholder 4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Placeholder 4 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Placeholder 5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Placeholder 5 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Placeholder 6

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Placeholder 6 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Placeholder 7

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Placeholder 7 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Placeholder 8

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Placeholder 8 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Placeholder 9

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Placeholder 9 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Placeholder 10

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Placeholder 10 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Placeholder 11

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Placeholder 11 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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