Market comparison

333: Alex Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev

2 venues · 28 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $553K reported volume

Observed 28s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

27 outcomes · $100K reported volume

Observed 28s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for 333: Alex Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Alex Volkanovski Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	51.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 51.0% Alex Volkanovski Open Kalshi ↗	49.5% Bid 49.0% · Ask 50.0% Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Decision or Draw Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	59.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 68.0% Decision or Draw Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 2? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0% Ends before Round 2? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 3? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	16.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0% Ends before Round 3? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 4? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	23.5% Bid 21.0% · Ask 26.0% Ends before Round 4? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 5? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	29.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 31.0% Ends before Round 5? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Evloev in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Evloev in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Evloev in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Evloev in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Evloev in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Evloev in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Evloev in Round 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Evloev in Round 4 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Evloev in Round 5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Evloev in Round 5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Evloev to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.5% Bid 8.0% · Ask 49.0% Evloev to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight to Go the Distance? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	68.0% Bid 67.0% · Ask 69.0% Fight to Go the Distance? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by decision? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	61.5% Bid 50.0% · Ask 73.0% Fight won by decision? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	29.5% Bid 19.0% · Ask 40.0% Fight won by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by submission? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	27.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 49.0% Fight won by submission? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Movsar Evloev Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 50.0% Movsar Evloev Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
O/U 0.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	93.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 96.0% O/U 0.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 1.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	72.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 94.0% O/U 1.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 2.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	68.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 86.0% O/U 2.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 3.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	65.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 80.0% O/U 3.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 4.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	71.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 72.0% O/U 4.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
Volkanovski in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Volkanovski in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Volkanovski in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Volkanovski in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Volkanovski in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Volkanovski in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Volkanovski in Round 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Volkanovski in Round 4 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Volkanovski in Round 5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0% Volkanovski in Round 5 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Volkanovski to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 49.0% Volkanovski to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—

Alex Volkanovski

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

51.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 51.0%

Alex Volkanovski

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

49.5%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 50.0%

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Decision or Draw

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

59.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 68.0%

Decision or Draw

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 2?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0%

Ends before Round 2?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 3?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

16.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0%

Ends before Round 3?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 4?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

23.5%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 26.0%

Ends before Round 4?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 5?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

29.0%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 31.0%

Ends before Round 5?

Open Polymarket ↗

Evloev in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Evloev in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Evloev in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Evloev in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Evloev in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Evloev in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Evloev in Round 4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Evloev in Round 4

Open Polymarket ↗

Evloev in Round 5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Evloev in Round 5

Open Polymarket ↗

Evloev to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

28.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 49.0%

Evloev to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight to Go the Distance?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

68.0%

Bid 67.0% · Ask 69.0%

Fight to Go the Distance?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by decision?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

61.5%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 73.0%

Fight won by decision?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

29.5%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 40.0%

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by submission?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

27.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 49.0%

Fight won by submission?

Open Polymarket ↗

Movsar Evloev

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 50.0%

Movsar Evloev

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

93.0%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 96.0%

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

72.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 94.0%

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

68.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 86.0%

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 3.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

65.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 80.0%

O/U 3.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 4.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

71.0%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 72.0%

O/U 4.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

Volkanovski in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Volkanovski in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Volkanovski in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Volkanovski in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Volkanovski in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Volkanovski in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Volkanovski in Round 4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Volkanovski in Round 4

Open Polymarket ↗

Volkanovski in Round 5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 50.0%

Volkanovski in Round 5

Open Polymarket ↗

Volkanovski to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

28.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 49.0%

Volkanovski to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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