Market comparison

333: Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $110K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

19 outcomes · $28K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for 333: Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Alexander Volkov Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	53.0% Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0% Alexander Volkov Open Kalshi ↗	52.5% Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0% Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Decision or Draw Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	63.5% Bid 58.0% · Ask 69.0% Decision or Draw Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 2? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	16.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0% Ends before Round 2? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 3? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 30.0% Ends before Round 3? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight to Go the Distance? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	65.5% Bid 64.0% · Ask 67.0% Fight to Go the Distance? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by decision? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	63.5% Bid 58.0% · Ask 69.0% Fight won by decision? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	32.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 37.0% Fight won by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by submission? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0% Fight won by submission? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Kuniev in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 13.0% Kuniev in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Kuniev in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0% Kuniev in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Kuniev in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0% Kuniev in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Kuniev to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	15.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 19.0% Kuniev to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 0.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	90.5% Bid 86.0% · Ask 95.0% O/U 0.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 1.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	79.0% Bid 74.0% · Ask 84.0% O/U 1.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 2.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	68.5% Bid 67.0% · Ask 70.0% O/U 2.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
Rizvan Kuniev Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	48.0% Bid 47.0% · Ask 48.0% Rizvan Kuniev Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Volkov in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 14.0% Volkov in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Volkov in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% Volkov in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Volkov in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0% Volkov in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Volkov to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	16.5% Bid 13.0% · Ask 20.0% Volkov to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—

Alexander Volkov

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

53.0%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0%

Alexander Volkov

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

52.5%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0%

Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Decision or Draw

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

63.5%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 69.0%

Decision or Draw

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 2?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

16.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0%

Ends before Round 2?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 3?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

28.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 30.0%

Ends before Round 3?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight to Go the Distance?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

65.5%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 67.0%

Fight to Go the Distance?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by decision?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

63.5%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 69.0%

Fight won by decision?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

32.0%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 37.0%

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by submission?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0%

Fight won by submission?

Open Polymarket ↗

Kuniev in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 13.0%

Kuniev in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Kuniev in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0%

Kuniev in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Kuniev in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0%

Kuniev in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Kuniev to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

15.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 19.0%

Kuniev to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

90.5%

Bid 86.0% · Ask 95.0%

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

79.0%

Bid 74.0% · Ask 84.0%

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

68.5%

Bid 67.0% · Ask 70.0%

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

Rizvan Kuniev

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

48.0%

Bid 47.0% · Ask 48.0%

Rizvan Kuniev

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Volkov in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 14.0%

Volkov in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Volkov in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

Volkov in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Volkov in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0%

Volkov in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Volkov to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

16.5%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 20.0%

Volkov to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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