Market comparison
AEK vs. Real Madrid CF
2 venues · 3 outcome rows · 3 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗3 outcomes · $27K reported volume
Observed 42s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗3 outcomes · $2K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
- Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
- Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
- Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
- UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
- Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
AEK Athens Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Draw Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Real Madrid Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 4.0 pp |
AEK Athens
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
Draw
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
Real Madrid
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 4.0 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.