Market comparison

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

2 venues · 11 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $469K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

10 outcomes · $133K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Observed 20s ago

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Before 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	33.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 33.0% Before 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	68.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 68.0% Before 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Dec 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	16.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 19.0% Before Dec 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Jan 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	16.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0% Before Jan 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗ 23.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 23.0% Before Jan 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Jan 1, 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	63.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 66.0% Before Jan 1, 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Jul 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 50.0% Before Jul 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Nov 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% Before Nov 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Oct 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗ 1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
December 31, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.5% Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0% December 31, 2026 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
December 31, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	64.0% Bid 63.0% · Ask 65.0% December 31, 2027 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
September 30, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% September 30, 2026 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Before 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

33.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 33.0%

Before 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Before 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

68.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 68.0%

Before 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Dec 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 19.0%

Before Dec 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Jan 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

23.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 23.0%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Jan 1, 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

63.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 66.0%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Jul 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 50.0%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Nov 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Oct 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

December 31, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

23.5%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0%

December 31, 2026

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

December 31, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

64.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 65.0%

December 31, 2027

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

September 30, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

September 30, 2026 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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