Market comparison

AL-05 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $22K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $15K reported volume

Observed 52s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for AL-05 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Democrat Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 2.1% · Ask 6.0% Democrat Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—
Republican 0-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.8% Bid 0.5% · Ask 3.0% Republican 0-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Republican 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.5% Bid 0.6% · Ask 8.4% Republican 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Republican 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	38.5% Bid 33.0% · Ask 44.0% Republican 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Republican 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	33.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 35.0% Republican 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Republican 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 19.0% Republican 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Republican 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	15.5% Bid 0.9% · Ask 30.1% Republican 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Republican 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.8% Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.0% Republican 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Republican 40%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.8% Bid 6.8% · Ask 8.9% Republican 40%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—
Strong, 10+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	95.3% Bid 95.3% · Ask 99.8% Strong, 10+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Strong, 13+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 87.0% · Ask 96.7% Strong, 13+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Strong, 16+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	81.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 90.6% Strong, 16+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Strong, 19+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	69.0% Bid 69.0% · Ask 79.0% Strong, 19+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Strong, 22+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	53.0% Bid 53.0% · Ask 65.0% Strong, 22+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Strong, 25+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	38.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 48.0% Strong, 25+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Strong, 28+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 35.0% Strong, 28+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Strong, 31+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 23.0% Strong, 31+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Strong, 34+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.0% Bid 2.9% · Ask 14.0% Strong, 34+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Democrat Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 6.0%

Democrat Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Republican 0-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.8%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 3.0%

Republican 0-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Republican 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 8.4%

Republican 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Republican 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

38.5%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 44.0%

Republican 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Republican 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

33.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 35.0%

Republican 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Republican 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

10.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 19.0%

Republican 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Republican 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

15.5%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 30.1%

Republican 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Republican 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.8%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.0%

Republican 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Republican 40%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.8%

Bid 6.8% · Ask 8.9%

Republican 40%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Strong, 10+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

95.3%

Bid 95.3% · Ask 99.8%

Strong, 10+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Strong, 13+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 87.0% · Ask 96.7%

Strong, 13+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Strong, 16+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

81.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 90.6%

Strong, 16+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Strong, 19+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

69.0%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 79.0%

Strong, 19+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Strong, 22+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

53.0%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 65.0%

Strong, 22+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Strong, 25+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

38.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 48.0%

Strong, 25+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Strong, 28+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 35.0%

Strong, 28+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Strong, 31+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 23.0%

Strong, 31+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Strong, 34+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 2.9% · Ask 14.0%

Strong, 34+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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