The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

AL Cy Young Winner?

2 venues · 59 outcome rows · 26 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

42 outcomes · $2.9M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 8, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

65 outcomes · $1.3M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 12, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Bryan Woo

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Bryan Woo

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Bryan Woo

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Bryce Miller

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Bryce Miller

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Bryce Miller

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Cam Schlittler

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask —

Cam Schlittler

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

98.7%

Bid 98.5% · Ask 98.9%

Cam Schlittler

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.7 pp

Carlos Rodon

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Carlos Rodon

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Carlos Rodón

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Cole Ragans

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cole Ragans

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Cole Ragans

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Drew Rasmussen

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Drew Rasmussen

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Drew Rasmussen

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Dylan Cease

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Dylan Cease

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.8%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.3%

Dylan Cease

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.2 pp

Garrett Crochet

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Garrett Crochet

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Garrett Crochet

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Gavin Williams

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Gavin Williams

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Gavin Williams

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

George Kirby

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

George Kirby

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

George Kirby

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Gerrit Cole

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Gerrit Cole

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Gerrit Cole

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Hunter Brown

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Hunter Brown

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Hunter Brown

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Jacob Degrom

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Jacob Degrom

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Jacob deGrom

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Joe Ryan

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Joe Ryan

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Joe Ryan

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Jose Soriano

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Jose Soriano

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Jose Soriano

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Kevin Gausman

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Kevin Gausman

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Kevin Gausman

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Kyle Bradish

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Kyle Bradish

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Kyle Bradish

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Logan Gilbert

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Logan Gilbert

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Logan Gilbert

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

MacKenzie Gore

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

MacKenzie Gore

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

MacKenzie Gore

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Max Fried

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Max Fried

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Max Fried

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Nathan Eovaldi

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Nathan Eovaldi

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Nathan Eovaldi

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Pablo Lopez

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Pablo Lopez

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Pablo Lopez

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Parker Messick

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Parker Messick

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Parker Messick

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Ranger Suarez

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Ranger Suarez

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Ranger Suarez

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Sonny Gray

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Sonny Gray

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Sonny Gray

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Tarik Skubal

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Tarik Skubal

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Tarik Skubal

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Aroldis Chapman

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Aroldis Chapman

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Brayan Bello

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Brayan Bello

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Casey Mize

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Casey Mize

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Grayson Rodriguez

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Grayson Rodriguez

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Jack Flaherty

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Jack Flaherty

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Kris Bubic

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Kris Bubic

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Logan Gilbert

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Luis Gil

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Luis Castillo

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Luis Castillo

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Michael Wacha

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Michael Wacha

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

player AA

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AA · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AB

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AB · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AC · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AD

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AD · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AE

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AE · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AF

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AF · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AG

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AG · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AH

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AH · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AI · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AJ

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AJ · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AK

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AK · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AL

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AL · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AM

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AM · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AN

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AN · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AO

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AO · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

player AP

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

player AP · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Sean Burke

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Sean Burke

Open Polymarket ↗

Shane Bieber

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Shane Bieber

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shane McClanahan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Shane McClanahan

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tanner Bibee

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Tanner Bibee

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tie/Co-Winners

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Tie/Co-Winners

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Trevor Rogers

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Trevor Rogers

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Trey Yesavage

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Trey Yesavage

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Yusei Kikuchi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Yusei Kikuchi

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.