Market comparison

Alaska Senate winner? (Party)

2 venues · 13 outcome rows · 3 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $3.6M reported volume

Observed 45s ago

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

29 outcomes · $1.6M reported volume

Observed 45s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Alaska Senate winner? (Party)
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Ann Diener Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Ann Diener Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Ann Diener Open Polymarket ↗	0.1 pp
Mary Peltola Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	75.0% Bid 74.0% · Ask 75.0% Mary Peltola Open Kalshi ↗	74.5% Bid 74.0% · Ask 75.0% Mary Peltola Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Richard Grayson Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Richard Grayson Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Richard Grayson Open Polymarket ↗	0.1 pp
Dan Sullivan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	27.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 27.0% Dan Sullivan Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dan Sullivan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Daniel J. Sullivan Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. Open Polymarket ↗	—
David Leslie Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% David Leslie Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democratic party Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	75.0% Bid 75.0% · Ask 76.0% Democratic party Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dustin Darden Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Dustin Darden Open Polymarket ↗	—
Gerald Heikes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Gerald Heikes Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Republican party Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0% Republican party Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Sen. Dan Sullivan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	25.5% Bid 25.0% · Ask 26.0% Sen. Dan Sullivan Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sid Hill Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Sid Hill Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Ann Diener

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Ann Diener

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Ann Diener

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Mary Peltola

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

75.0%

Bid 74.0% · Ask 75.0%

Mary Peltola

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

74.5%

Bid 74.0% · Ask 75.0%

Mary Peltola

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Richard Grayson

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Richard Grayson

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Richard Grayson

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Dan Sullivan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

27.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 27.0%

Dan Sullivan

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dan Sullivan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Daniel J. Sullivan

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.

Open Polymarket ↗

David Leslie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

David Leslie

Open Polymarket ↗

Democratic party

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

75.0%

Bid 75.0% · Ask 76.0%

Democratic party

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dustin Darden

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Dustin Darden

Open Polymarket ↗

Gerald Heikes

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Gerald Heikes

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Republican party

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

25.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0%

Republican party

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Sen. Dan Sullivan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

25.5%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 26.0%

Sen. Dan Sullivan

Open Polymarket ↗

Sid Hill

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1%

Sid Hill

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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