The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Altmaier vs Fritz

2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $40K reported volume

Observed 24s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $24K reported volume

Observed 24s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
  • Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
  • Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Altmaier

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

22.5%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0%

Daniel Altmaier

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Completed Match

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

49.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.0%

Completed Match

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

80.5%

Bid 79.0% · Ask 82.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

56.5%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 57.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set Handicap +/-1.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

56.0%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 61.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 9.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

54.0%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 55.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

52.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 97.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 96.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 10.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 96.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 8.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 96.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 9.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

45.0%

Bid 44.0% · Ask 46.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 22.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

41.0%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 42.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Game Spread +/-4.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

39.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 40.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 23.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

36.0%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 39.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

32.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 33.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Total Sets: O/U 2.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 28.0%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Taylor Fritz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

78.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 79.0%

Taylor Fritz

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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