Market comparison

AR-01 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $28K reported volume

Observed 28s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 28s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for AR-01 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Crawford, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	93.8% Bid 90.1% · Ask 97.4% Crawford, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Crawford, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	88.0% Bid 85.0% · Ask 90.8% Crawford, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Crawford, 33+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	78.0% Bid 73.0% · Ask 82.0% Crawford, 33+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Crawford, 36+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	71.0% Bid 61.0% · Ask 71.0% Crawford, 36+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Crawford, 39+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	54.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 54.0% Crawford, 39+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Crawford, 42+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	37.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 37.0% Crawford, 42+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Crawford, 45+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	23.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 23.0% Crawford, 45+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Crawford, 48+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.0% Bid 2.4% · Ask 13.0% Crawford, 48+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Crawford, 51+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.9% Crawford, 51+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrat Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% Democrat Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 0-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.9% Bid 0.4% · Ask 3.5% Republican 0-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.3% Bid 0.7% · Ask 7.8% Republican 15-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.1% Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.7% Republican 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.5% Bid 14.0% · Ask 29.0% Republican 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 36.0% Republican 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 40-45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	26.5% Bid 26.0% · Ask 27.0% Republican 40-45% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 45-50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0% Republican 45-50% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 50-55% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.4% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.8% Republican 50-55% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 55%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.9% Bid 1.1% · Ask 4.6% Republican 55%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Crawford, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

93.8%

Bid 90.1% · Ask 97.4%

Crawford, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Crawford, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

88.0%

Bid 85.0% · Ask 90.8%

Crawford, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Crawford, 33+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

78.0%

Bid 73.0% · Ask 82.0%

Crawford, 33+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Crawford, 36+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

71.0%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 71.0%

Crawford, 36+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Crawford, 39+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

54.0%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 54.0%

Crawford, 39+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Crawford, 42+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 37.0%

Crawford, 42+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Crawford, 45+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 23.0%

Crawford, 45+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Crawford, 48+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 2.4% · Ask 13.0%

Crawford, 48+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Crawford, 51+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.9%

Crawford, 51+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrat Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4%

Democrat Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 0-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 3.5%

Republican 0-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 7.8%

Republican 15-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.1%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.7%

Republican 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

21.5%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 29.0%

Republican 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

33.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 36.0%

Republican 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 40-45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 27.0%

Republican 40-45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 45-50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0%

Republican 45-50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 50-55%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.4%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.8%

Republican 50-55%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 55%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 4.6%

Republican 55%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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