Market comparison

AR-02 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $11K reported volume

Observed 31s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for AR-02 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 5%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.7% Bid 4.9% · Ask 6.5% Democrat 5%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Hill, 1+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	79.0% Bid 73.0% · Ask 85.0% Hill, 1+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hill, 3+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	74.0% Bid 63.0% · Ask 75.0% Hill, 3+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hill, 6+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	60.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 60.0% Hill, 6+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hill, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	35.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 43.0% Hill, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hill, 12+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 28.0% Hill, 12+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hill, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.0% Bid 5.7% · Ask 17.0% Hill, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hill, 18+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 11.0% Hill, 18+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hill, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.9% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.8% Hill, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Hill, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.5% Hill, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.5% Bid 26.0% · Ask 31.0% Republican 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.0% Bid 12.6% · Ask 15.4% Democrat 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.1% Bid 24.0% · Ask 26.2% Republican 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.8% Bid 20.0% · Ask 25.6% Republican 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.8% Bid 0.9% · Ask 4.6% Republican 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.4% Bid 1.1% · Ask 9.7% Republican 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.7% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.1% Republican 25%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat 5%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.7%

Bid 4.9% · Ask 6.5%

Democrat 5%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Hill, 1+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 73.0% · Ask 85.0%

Hill, 1+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hill, 3+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

74.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 75.0%

Hill, 3+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hill, 6+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

60.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 60.0%

Hill, 6+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hill, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 43.0%

Hill, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hill, 12+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 28.0%

Hill, 12+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hill, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 5.7% · Ask 17.0%

Hill, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hill, 18+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 11.0%

Hill, 18+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hill, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.9%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.8%

Hill, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Hill, 24+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.5%

Hill, 24+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

28.5%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 31.0%

Republican 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

14.0%

Bid 12.6% · Ask 15.4%

Democrat 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

25.1%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 26.2%

Republican 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

22.8%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 25.6%

Republican 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 4.6%

Republican 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.4%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 9.7%

Republican 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.1%

Republican 25%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets