Market comparison

AR-04 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $29K reported volume

Observed 32s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for AR-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 1.3% · Ask 10.7% Democrat Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 0-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.9% Bid 0.8% · Ask 4.9% Republican 0-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 1.8% · Ask 6.2% Republican 15-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.5% Bid 12.6% · Ask 14.4% Republican 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.9% Bid 25.2% · Ask 26.6% Republican 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	31.0% Bid 29.0% · Ask 33.0% Republican 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 40-45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 15.2% · Ask 20.8% Republican 40-45% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 45-50% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 0.9% · Ask 6.0% Republican 45-50% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 50-55% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.8% · Ask 3.2% Republican 50-55% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 55%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.7% Republican 55%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Westerman, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	90.0% Bid 85.0% · Ask 95.9% Westerman, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Westerman, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	85.0% Bid 76.0% · Ask 86.0% Westerman, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Westerman, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	74.0% Bid 64.0% · Ask 74.0% Westerman, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Westerman, 33+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	60.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 60.0% Westerman, 33+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Westerman, 36+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	45.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 45.0% Westerman, 36+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Westerman, 39+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	31.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 31.0% Westerman, 39+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Westerman, 42+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.1% Bid 8.1% · Ask 20.0% Westerman, 42+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Westerman, 45+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.3% Bid 0.5% · Ask 12.0% Westerman, 45+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Westerman, 48+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.2% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.4% Westerman, 48+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—

Democrat Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.0%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 10.7%

Democrat Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 0-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 4.9%

Republican 0-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 1.8% · Ask 6.2%

Republican 15-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 12.6% · Ask 14.4%

Republican 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

25.9%

Bid 25.2% · Ask 26.6%

Republican 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

31.0%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 33.0%

Republican 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 40-45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

18.0%

Bid 15.2% · Ask 20.8%

Republican 40-45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 45-50%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 6.0%

Republican 45-50%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 50-55%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.0%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 3.2%

Republican 50-55%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 55%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.7%

Republican 55%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Westerman, 24+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 85.0% · Ask 95.9%

Westerman, 24+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Westerman, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

85.0%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 86.0%

Westerman, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Westerman, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

74.0%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 74.0%

Westerman, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Westerman, 33+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

60.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 60.0%

Westerman, 33+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Westerman, 36+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

45.0%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 45.0%

Westerman, 36+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Westerman, 39+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

31.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 31.0%

Westerman, 39+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Westerman, 42+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

14.1%

Bid 8.1% · Ask 20.0%

Westerman, 42+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Westerman, 45+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.3%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 12.0%

Westerman, 45+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Westerman, 48+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.2%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.4%

Westerman, 48+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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