Market comparison
Argentina Presidential Election First Round Winner
2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 9 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗9 outcomes · $23K reported volume
Observed 3m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 23, 2028
Polymarket
Open venue ↗45 outcomes · $14K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2027
Known rule differences between venues
- Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Axel Kicillof Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | 2.0 pp | ||
Javier Milei Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | 1.5 pp | ||
Juan Grabois Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | 0.7 pp | ||
Juan Schiaretti Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | 0.2 pp | ||
Mauricio Macri Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | 1.8 pp | ||
Myriam Bregman Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | 1.8 pp | ||
Patricia Bullrich Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | 9.1 pp | ||
Sergio Massa Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | 6.0 pp | ||
Victoria Villarruel Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | 3.9 pp | ||
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Daniel Hadad Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Dante Gebel Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Esteban Bullrich Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Facundo Manes Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Guillermo Moreno Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Karina Milei Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Nicolás del Caño Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Axel Kicillof
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.0 pp
Javier Milei
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.5 pp
Juan Grabois
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.7 pp
Juan Schiaretti
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.2 pp
Mauricio Macri
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.8 pp
Myriam Bregman
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.8 pp
Patricia Bullrich
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 9.1 pp
Sergio Massa
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 6.0 pp
Victoria Villarruel
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 3.9 pp
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Daniel Hadad
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Dante Gebel
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Esteban Bullrich
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Facundo Manes
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Guillermo Moreno
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Karina Milei
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Nicolás del Caño
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.