Market comparison

Arizona's 1st District margin of victory

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

10 outcomes · $49K reported volume

Observed 55s ago

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $17K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Arizona's 1st District margin of victory
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Democrat 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.8% Bid 8.4% · Ask 13.3% Democrat 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.3% Bid 1.6% · Ask 10.9% Republican 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.5% Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0% Democrat 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.4% Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.8% Republican 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	18.5% Bid 17.0% · Ask 20.0% Democrat 6-9% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.6% Bid 10.1% · Ask 15.1% Democrat 9-12% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 12-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.9% Bid 3.5% · Ask 8.2% Democrat 12-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 15-18% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.8% Bid 0.7% · Ask 8.8% Democrat 15-18% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 18%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.9% Bid 0.9% · Ask 8.8% Democrat 18%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—
Feely, 1+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 8.1% · Ask 18.0% Feely, 1+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Feely, 4+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 0.5% · Ask 11.0% Feely, 4+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Feely, 7+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.7% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.8% Feely, 7+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Republican 6%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.7% Bid 0.8% · Ask 8.6% Republican 6%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—
Shah, 1+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	73.5% Bid 72.0% · Ask 75.0% Shah, 1+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shah, 2+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	68.0% Bid 68.0% · Ask 77.0% Shah, 2+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shah, 5+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	53.0% Bid 53.0% · Ask 55.0% Shah, 5+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shah, 8+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	37.0% Bid 37.0% · Ask 49.0% Shah, 8+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shah, 11+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 34.0% Shah, 11+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shah, 14+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 21.0% Shah, 14+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shah, 17+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.9% Bid 1.7% · Ask 13.0% Shah, 17+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Democrat 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

10.8%

Bid 8.4% · Ask 13.3%

Democrat 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.3%

Bid 1.6% · Ask 10.9%

Republican 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

21.5%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0%

Democrat 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.4%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.8%

Republican 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 6-9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

18.5%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 20.0%

Democrat 6-9%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 9-12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.6%

Bid 10.1% · Ask 15.1%

Democrat 9-12%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 12-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.9%

Bid 3.5% · Ask 8.2%

Democrat 12-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 15-18%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.8%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 8.8%

Democrat 15-18%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 18%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.9%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 8.8%

Democrat 18%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Feely, 1+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 8.1% · Ask 18.0%

Feely, 1+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Feely, 4+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 11.0%

Feely, 4+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Feely, 7+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.7%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.8%

Feely, 7+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Republican 6%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 8.6%

Republican 6%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Shah, 1+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

73.5%

Bid 72.0% · Ask 75.0%

Shah, 1+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shah, 2+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

68.0%

Bid 68.0% · Ask 77.0%

Shah, 2+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shah, 5+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

53.0%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 55.0%

Shah, 5+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shah, 8+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 49.0%

Shah, 8+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shah, 11+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 34.0%

Shah, 11+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shah, 14+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 21.0%

Shah, 14+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shah, 17+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.9%

Bid 1.7% · Ask 13.0%

Shah, 17+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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