Market comparison

Arkansas Senate Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 27 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $15K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

17 outcomes · $10K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Arkansas Senate Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Cotton, 2+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	90.1% Bid 90.1% · Ask 96.6% Cotton, 2+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 4+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	86.0% Bid 86.0% · Ask 96.5% Cotton, 4+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 6+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	82.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 92.7% Cotton, 6+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 8+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	79.0% Bid 76.0% · Ask 86.0% Cotton, 8+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 10+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	73.0% Bid 68.0% · Ask 77.0% Cotton, 10+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 12+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	68.0% Bid 56.0% · Ask 68.0% Cotton, 12+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 14+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	52.0% Bid 45.0% · Ask 57.0% Cotton, 14+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 16+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	41.0% Bid 34.0% · Ask 46.0% Cotton, 16+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 18+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 36.0% Cotton, 18+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 20+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 28.0% Cotton, 20+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 22+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.0% Bid 8.4% · Ask 20.0% Cotton, 22+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.7% Bid 2.9% · Ask 14.0% Cotton, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 26+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 11.0% Cotton, 26+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 28+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.6% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.6% Cotton, 28+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.2% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.2% Cotton, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 32+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.5% Cotton, 32+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cotton, 34+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.2% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.2% Cotton, 34+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrat Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.4% Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.8% Democrat Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.3% Bid 1.6% · Ask 10.9% Republican 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 43.0% Republican 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.1% Bid 32.8% · Ask 33.5% Republican 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 27.0% Republican 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0% Republican 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.6% Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.9% Republican 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.4% Bid 0.8% · Ask 5.9% Republican 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.1% Bid 0.4% · Ask 5.8% Republican 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 40%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.9% Bid 0.8% · Ask 5.0% Republican 40%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Cotton, 2+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

90.1%

Bid 90.1% · Ask 96.6%

Cotton, 2+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 4+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

86.0%

Bid 86.0% · Ask 96.5%

Cotton, 4+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 6+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 92.7%

Cotton, 6+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 8+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 86.0%

Cotton, 8+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 10+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

73.0%

Bid 68.0% · Ask 77.0%

Cotton, 10+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 12+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

68.0%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 68.0%

Cotton, 12+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 14+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

52.0%

Bid 45.0% · Ask 57.0%

Cotton, 14+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 16+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

41.0%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 46.0%

Cotton, 16+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 18+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 36.0%

Cotton, 18+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 20+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 28.0%

Cotton, 20+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 22+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 8.4% · Ask 20.0%

Cotton, 22+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 24+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

8.7%

Bid 2.9% · Ask 14.0%

Cotton, 24+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 26+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 11.0%

Cotton, 26+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 28+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

8.6%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.6%

Cotton, 28+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.2%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.2%

Cotton, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 32+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.5%

Cotton, 32+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Cotton, 34+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.2%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.2%

Cotton, 34+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrat Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.4%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.8%

Democrat Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.3%

Bid 1.6% · Ask 10.9%

Republican 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

33.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 43.0%

Republican 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

33.1%

Bid 32.8% · Ask 33.5%

Republican 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 27.0%

Republican 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0%

Republican 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.6%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.9%

Republican 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.4%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 5.9%

Republican 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.1%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 5.8%

Republican 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 40%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 5.0%

Republican 40%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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