Market comparison

AZ-01 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

10 outcomes · $49K reported volume

Observed 5m ago

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $17K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for AZ-01 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Democrat 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.0% Bid 8.1% · Ask 11.8% Democrat 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.9% Bid 2.8% · Ask 10.9% Republican 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 22.0% Democrat 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.6% Bid 3.7% · Ask 13.6% Republican 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 23.0% Democrat 6-9% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	15.8% Bid 13.5% · Ask 18.0% Democrat 9-12% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 12-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.7% Bid 0.3% · Ask 7.1% Democrat 12-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 15-18% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.6% Bid 0.4% · Ask 8.8% Democrat 15-18% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 18%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.3% Bid 0.8% · Ask 9.7% Democrat 18%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—
Feely, 1+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.0% Bid 8.1% · Ask 17.0% Feely, 1+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Feely, 4+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 0.5% · Ask 11.0% Feely, 4+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Feely, 7+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.7% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.8% Feely, 7+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Republican 6%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.7% Bid 0.9% · Ask 8.4% Republican 6%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—
Shah, 1+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	76.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 82.0% Shah, 1+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shah, 2+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	67.0% Bid 66.0% · Ask 77.0% Shah, 2+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shah, 5+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	52.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 55.0% Shah, 5+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shah, 8+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	37.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 42.0% Shah, 8+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shah, 11+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 29.0% Shah, 11+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shah, 14+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 7.5% · Ask 19.0% Shah, 14+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shah, 17+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.9% Bid 0.5% · Ask 12.0% Shah, 17+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Democrat 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

10.0%

Bid 8.1% · Ask 11.8%

Democrat 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.9%

Bid 2.8% · Ask 10.9%

Republican 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

20.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 22.0%

Democrat 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.6%

Bid 3.7% · Ask 13.6%

Republican 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 6-9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

14.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 23.0%

Democrat 6-9%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 9-12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

15.8%

Bid 13.5% · Ask 18.0%

Democrat 9-12%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 12-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.7%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 7.1%

Democrat 12-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 15-18%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.6%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 8.8%

Democrat 15-18%

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 18%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.3%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 9.7%

Democrat 18%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Feely, 1+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 8.1% · Ask 17.0%

Feely, 1+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Feely, 4+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 11.0%

Feely, 4+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Feely, 7+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.7%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.8%

Feely, 7+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Republican 6%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 8.4%

Republican 6%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Shah, 1+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

76.0%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 82.0%

Shah, 1+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shah, 2+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

67.0%

Bid 66.0% · Ask 77.0%

Shah, 2+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shah, 5+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

52.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 55.0%

Shah, 5+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shah, 8+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 42.0%

Shah, 8+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shah, 11+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 29.0%

Shah, 11+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shah, 14+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 7.5% · Ask 19.0%

Shah, 14+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shah, 17+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.9%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 12.0%

Shah, 17+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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