Market comparison

AZ-02 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $14K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

7 outcomes · $4K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for AZ-02 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Crane, 1+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	66.0% Bid 57.0% · Ask 67.0% Crane, 1+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Crane, 4+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 50.0% Crane, 4+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Crane, 7+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	32.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 36.0% Crane, 7+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Crane, 10+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 26.0% Crane, 10+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Crane, 13+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.5% Bid 4.9% · Ask 16.0% Crane, 13+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Crane, 16+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 11.0% Crane, 16+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Crane, 19+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.8% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.9% Crane, 19+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrat 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	30.0% Bid 29.0% · Ask 31.0% Republican 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 15.0% Democrat 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 6%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.1% Bid 4.6% · Ask 5.5% Democrat 6%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0% Republican 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.9% Bid 2.3% · Ask 7.5% Democrat 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	20.1% Bid 19.4% · Ask 20.7% Republican 6-9% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.2% Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.2% Republican 9-12% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 12-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.7% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.4% Republican 12-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-18% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 3.1% · Ask 6.8% Republican 15-18% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 18%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.3% Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.3% Republican 18%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Crane, 1+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

66.0%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 67.0%

Crane, 1+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Crane, 4+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 50.0%

Crane, 4+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Crane, 7+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

32.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 36.0%

Crane, 7+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Crane, 10+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

26.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 26.0%

Crane, 10+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Crane, 13+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

10.5%

Bid 4.9% · Ask 16.0%

Crane, 13+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Crane, 16+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 11.0%

Crane, 16+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Crane, 19+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.8%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.9%

Crane, 19+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrat 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

30.0%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 31.0%

Republican 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 15.0%

Democrat 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 6%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 4.6% · Ask 5.5%

Democrat 6%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

16.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0%

Republican 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.9%

Bid 2.3% · Ask 7.5%

Democrat 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 6-9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

20.1%

Bid 19.4% · Ask 20.7%

Republican 6-9%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 9-12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.2%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.2%

Republican 9-12%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 12-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.7%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.4%

Republican 12-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-18%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 3.1% · Ask 6.8%

Republican 15-18%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 18%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 2.3%

Republican 18%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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