Market comparison

AZ-06 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $16K reported volume

Observed 58s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $11K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Observed 6m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for AZ-06 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Ciscomani, 2+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 12.0% Ciscomani, 2+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Ciscomani, 5+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.7% Bid 0.2% · Ask 9.1% Ciscomani, 5+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Ciscomani, 8+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.1% Ciscomani, 8+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Democrat 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0% Democrat 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 6.9% · Ask 7.0% Republican 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 25.0% Democrat 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.8% Bid 0.7% · Ask 4.9% Republican 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.5% Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0% Democrat 6-9% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.5% Bid 10.0% · Ask 13.0% Democrat 9-12% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 12-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.9% Bid 15.9% · Ask 21.8% Democrat 12-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 15-18% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.2% Bid 0.9% · Ask 5.5% Democrat 15-18% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 18%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.9% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.7% Democrat 18%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Mendoza, 1+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	80.0% Bid 80.0% · Ask 90.4% Mendoza, 1+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Mendoza, 4+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	69.0% Bid 66.0% · Ask 70.0% Mendoza, 4+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Mendoza, 7+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.0% Bid 51.0% · Ask 61.0% Mendoza, 7+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Mendoza, 10+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	34.0% Bid 34.0% · Ask 46.0% Mendoza, 10+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Mendoza, 13+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 31.0% Mendoza, 13+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Mendoza, 16+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.5% Bid 7.3% · Ask 19.0% Mendoza, 16+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican 6%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.7% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.2% Republican 6%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Ciscomani, 2+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 12.0%

Ciscomani, 2+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Ciscomani, 5+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.7%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 9.1%

Ciscomani, 5+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Ciscomani, 8+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.1%

Ciscomani, 8+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Democrat 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

22.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0%

Democrat 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 6.9% · Ask 7.0%

Republican 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

23.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 25.0%

Democrat 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 4.9%

Republican 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 6-9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

16.5%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0%

Democrat 6-9%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 9-12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

11.5%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 13.0%

Democrat 9-12%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 12-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

18.9%

Bid 15.9% · Ask 21.8%

Democrat 12-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 15-18%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.2%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 5.5%

Democrat 15-18%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 18%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.9%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.7%

Democrat 18%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Mendoza, 1+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

80.0%

Bid 80.0% · Ask 90.4%

Mendoza, 1+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Mendoza, 4+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

69.0%

Bid 66.0% · Ask 70.0%

Mendoza, 4+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Mendoza, 7+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

51.0%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 61.0%

Mendoza, 7+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Mendoza, 10+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

34.0%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 46.0%

Mendoza, 10+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Mendoza, 13+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 31.0%

Mendoza, 13+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Mendoza, 16+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.5%

Bid 7.3% · Ask 19.0%

Mendoza, 16+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican 6%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.2%

Republican 6%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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