Market comparison

AZ-09 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $14K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $13K reported volume

Observed 43s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for AZ-09 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.5% Bid 1.7% · Ask 7.3% Democrat Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Gosar, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	84.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 91.6% Gosar, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gosar, 12+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	78.0% Bid 77.0% · Ask 84.0% Gosar, 12+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gosar, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	68.0% Bid 61.0% · Ask 73.0% Gosar, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gosar, 18+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	59.0% Bid 47.0% · Ask 59.0% Gosar, 18+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gosar, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	43.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 43.0% Gosar, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gosar, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	30.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 30.0% Gosar, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gosar, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	18.0% Bid 7.7% · Ask 19.0% Gosar, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gosar, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.0% Bid 0.5% · Ask 12.0% Gosar, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gosar, 33+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.3% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.5% Gosar, 33+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.6% Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.1% Republican 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.3% Bid 0.6% · Ask 10.1% Republican 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	32.1% Bid 29.8% · Ask 34.5% Republican 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.5% Bid 23.0% · Ask 28.0% Republican 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.5% Bid 19.0% · Ask 24.0% Republican 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.9% Bid 1.3% · Ask 8.5% Republican 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.6% · Ask 3.5% Republican 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 35%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.3% Bid 5.3% · Ask 5.4% Republican 35%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 1.7% · Ask 7.3%

Democrat Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Gosar, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 91.6%

Gosar, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gosar, 12+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

78.0%

Bid 77.0% · Ask 84.0%

Gosar, 12+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gosar, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

68.0%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 73.0%

Gosar, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gosar, 18+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

59.0%

Bid 47.0% · Ask 59.0%

Gosar, 18+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gosar, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 43.0%

Gosar, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gosar, 24+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

30.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 30.0%

Gosar, 24+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gosar, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 7.7% · Ask 19.0%

Gosar, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gosar, 30+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 12.0%

Gosar, 30+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Gosar, 33+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.3%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.5%

Gosar, 33+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.6%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.1%

Republican 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.3%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 10.1%

Republican 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

32.1%

Bid 29.8% · Ask 34.5%

Republican 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

25.5%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 28.0%

Republican 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

21.5%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 24.0%

Republican 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.9%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 8.5%

Republican 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 2.6% · Ask 3.5%

Republican 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 35%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.3%

Bid 5.3% · Ask 5.4%

Republican 35%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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