Market comparison

Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?

2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $53K reported volume

Observed 55s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 9, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $21K reported volume

Observed 55s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 9, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
25 bps decrease Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.7% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.1% 25 bps decrease Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Cut 25bps Open Kalshi ↗	1.4 pp
25 bps increase Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	41.5% Bid 39.0% · Ask 44.0% 25 bps increase Open Polymarket ↗	44.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 45.0% Hike 25bps Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
50+ bps decrease Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.7% Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.1% 50+ bps decrease Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Cut >25bps Open Kalshi ↗	4.3 pp
50+ bps increase Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.6% Bid 0.6% · Ask 2.5% 50+ bps increase Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0% Hike >25bps Open Kalshi ↗	1.4 pp
No Change Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	53.5% Bid 53.0% · Ask 54.0% No Change Open Polymarket ↗	54.0% Bid 53.0% · Ask 56.0% Maintains rate Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp

25 bps decrease

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.1%

25 bps decrease

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Cut 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.4 pp

25 bps increase

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

41.5%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 44.0%

25 bps increase

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

44.0%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 45.0%

Hike 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

50+ bps decrease

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.1%

50+ bps decrease

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Cut >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.3 pp

50+ bps increase

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

1.6%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 2.5%

50+ bps increase

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Hike >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.4 pp

No Change

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

53.5%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 54.0%

No Change

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

54.0%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 56.0%

Maintains rate

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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