Market comparison

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $511K reported volume

Observed 52s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 28, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $453K reported volume

Observed 52s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 28, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Bank of Canada Decision in October?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Cut >25bps Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Cut >25bps Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 50+ bps decrease Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Cut 25bps Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Cut 25bps Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% 25 bps decrease Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Hike >25bps Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Hike >25bps Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% 50+ bps increase Open Polymarket ↗	1.9 pp
Hike 25bps Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	81.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 82.0% Hike 25bps Open Kalshi ↗	81.7% Bid 81.0% · Ask 82.3% 25 bps increase Open Polymarket ↗	0.6 pp
Maintains rate Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	17.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0% Maintains rate Open Kalshi ↗	17.5% Bid 16.8% · Ask 18.3% No Change Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp

Cut >25bps

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cut >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

50+ bps decrease

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Cut 25bps

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cut 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

25 bps decrease

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Hike >25bps

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Hike >25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

50+ bps increase

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

Hike 25bps

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

81.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 82.0%

Hike 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

81.7%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 82.3%

25 bps increase

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.6 pp

Maintains rate

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0%

Maintains rate

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

17.5%

Bid 16.8% · Ask 18.3%

No Change

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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