Market comparison
Bank of Korea rate decision in November
2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $39K reported volume
Observed 2m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 26, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $3K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 26, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
- Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
- Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
25 bps cut Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.2 pp | ||
25 bps hike Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.0 pp | ||
50+ bps cut Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.4 pp | ||
50+ bps hike Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 4.1 pp | ||
No Change Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 6.0 pp |
25 bps cut
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.2 pp
25 bps hike
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.0 pp
50+ bps cut
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 1.4 pp
50+ bps hike
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 4.1 pp
No Change
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 6.0 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.